India, Indonesia join hands to counter expansionist China….such headings may be catchy but are far removed from real politic. China is second largest economy and has more than 6% of global GDP. It is in the process of developing maritime Silk route by developing 18 ports in the Indian Ocean region and has a toe hold already in Djibouti, Gawadar and Hambantota. It is in the process of expanding land route through Central Asian Republics connecting 62 countries as part of Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Trade volume between India and Indonesia in 2017 was $18.13 billion and is planned to reach $50 billion by 2025, whereas, China- Indonesia trade volume in 2017 was $50 billion almost three times that of India -Indonesia.
Are we serious that we are joining hands for countering China? Let us be pragmatic, India and Indonesia are maritime neighbours and has cultural heritage dating back to more than a thousand years. Geographical location of both nations make them natural allies and can complement each other culturally, economically and even militarily. Both nations face similar challenges especially internal security, maritime boundary challenges and economic growth. Both nations are poised to play an important role in Indo-Pacific in terms of strategic arena and even to propagate freedom of navigation as per the internal maritime laws of the sea. India is in a position to assist Indonesia in developing IT Sector, education, health, defence, disaster relief and infrastructure development. Similarly Indonesia can assist India in countering spread of religious radicalism, energy sector and export of palm oil. The relationship should be seen from the point of view of mutual benefits from each other’s strength and potential.
It is true that both nations are weary of expansionist China but neither Indonesia nor India would like the diplomatic relations between both the nations to be based to counter China. Even if we take China’s share in trade, it is almost three times that of India – Indonesia trade volume. There is increased volume of Indian tourists visiting Indonesia in the last few years and volume is increasing with every year, however, it is still far too less than Chinese tourists to Indonesia. (Indian tourists visiting Indonesia in 2017 were approx 5 lakh whereas Chinese tourists’ visiting Indonesia was approx. 20 lakhs). Therefore, to suggest that Indonesia will develop strategic relations with India at the cost of economic benefits they gain from China is unrealistic. Since the TPP faces uncertain future China and Indonesia may commence revitalisation of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which ASEAN proposed in response to the TPP. Thus to say that India and Indonesia will counter China may be little too farfetched. However, it is a great initiative to increase engagement with Indonesia but without attaching it with any other country.
Development of naval port in Sabang, will certainly be an important strategic objective because it is at the mouth of Malacca Straits. Thus linking Andaman and Sabong will be of strategic importance if India is able to develop it in time and then have maritime cooperation to use the port for naval training and logistical support. This will make China certainly uncomfortable but we must remember what China did to India in Maldives where it managed to evict GMR an Indian Infrastructure Development company from developing Male airport and took it away.