Who is Yahya Sinwar and His Significance?
Yahya Sinwar, a significant figure in Hamas and is viewed as a potential target by Israel. He succeeded Ismail Haniyeh and is regarded as the mastermind behind the October 7 attack. A staunch supporter of the creation of Palestine, Sinwar was recruited into Hamas by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in the 1980s and eventually headed Hamas’ internal security[i].
In 1988, Sinwar was imprisoned in Israel for killing four Palestinians whom he accused of collaborating with Israel. During his 23-year incarceration, he became fluent in Hebrew and translated Israel’s internal security practices into Arabic, he also tutored his cellmates on Israeli counter-terrorism techniques. His extensive knowledge of Israeli operations and security measures made him a valuable asset to Hamas. Released in 2011 under a prisoner swap deal, Sinwar now believes that capturing Israeli soldiers is an effective strategy to put pressure on Israel to secure the release of Palestinians[ii]. Hamas initially took around 250 Israeli hostages in October during a surprise offensive.
Sinwar crafted the October 7 attack a year in advance. In December 2022, he addressed a rally in Gaza, declaring that Hamas would flood Israel with fighters and missiles. Following the October 7 attack, Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht labelled Sinwar a “dead man walking[iii]. Sinwar’s appointment as the head of Hamas political bureau signals further destabilization in the region, complicating the peace negotiations.
Recent Developments
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz stated on X, “The appointment of arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of Hamas, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, is yet another compelling reason to swiftly eliminate him and wipe this vile organization off the face of the Earth.[iv]” Analysts believe that Sinwar will become Israel’s next target after Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr, Mohammed Dief, and Saleh-al-Arouri, who was killed in January. Khaled Meshaal a close aid of Ismail and Mahmoud Zahar, co-founder of Hamas, are also probable target[v].
On August 5, the Iranian armed forces’ Defa Press released a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel, which included ports, airports, military bases, power plants, and oil and gas fields[vi]. This publication is likely aimed to force Israel to spread its air and missile defense assets[vii].
The trajectory of the war proposes multiple interpretations, the most obvious being the alliance between Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah against Israel. A retired US General predicts that Iran could inflict significant damage on Israel. He compared the anticipated conflict to April when Iran launched a series of unsynchronized missiles toward Israel[viii]. This time, the stakes are higher, and a coordinated attack involving multiple parties could heighten tensions, dragging international stakeholders into the conflict.
Navigating in the chaotic region
Following Haniyeh’s assassination on Iranian territory, the conflict has intensified, with Iran vowing for revenge. The Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah trio against Israel might draw the US and UK further into the war. The US has urged both parties to avoid escalation and miscalculation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that the US will continue to support Israel and defend its troops in Iraq[ix]. The US is relentlessly trying to pacify both parties to facilitate peace negotiations.
China brokered the Beijing Declaration on July 23 between Hamas and Fatah, rival Palestinian groups, aimed at establishing a joint interim government once the war ends. This diplomatic move reflects growing Chinese influence in the region but lacks serious peace-negotiation elements. The declaration calls for the formation of a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders, presuming a decisive Hamas victory. Moreover, China provided no detailed outline or timeframe for achieving the same. Analyst Tahani Mustafa called China’s action a PR stunt[x].
As the war widens, India’s stakes are also rising, putting New Delhi in an awkward balancing act due to its cordial relationships with both Iran and Israel. Iran’s Ambassador to India, Iraj Elahi, recently asked India to take an active role in the conflict[xi]. The Chabahar port agreement with Iran is strategically vital for India to further New Delhi’s geopolitical interests. Israel and India are strategic partners, sharing various bilateral agreements on defense, trade, and technology. Initiatives like I2U2 and IMEC link India and Israel at a multilateral level. Losing any of them is not favourable to India.
Conclusion
The war is entering a new stage with intensified clashes and strikes. Both Iran and Israel may become more aggressive. Iran has requested air-defense systems from Russia against Israeli missile attacks, with deliveries underway, according to the New York Times[xii]. Hamas is believed to launch concentrated bombing attacks; Hezbollah is preparing to strike Northern Israel. Israel, too, is preparing for war, and Tel Aviv is already in a multi-front conflict. The hostility between the parties may intensify with Yahya Sinwar’s appointment as Hamas chief, complicating peace negotiations and making hostage deals more cumbersome and exhausting for international parties.
Endnotes:
[i] “Yahya Sinwar Named Hamas Leader: What Does His Appointment Means for Gaza-Israel Tensions?,” The Times of India, August 7 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/yahya-sinwar-named-hamas-leader-what-does-his-appointment-mean-for-gaza-israel-tensions/articleshow/112332579.cms.
[ii] Andrew Roth “Hamas Names Yahya Sinwar, Architect of 7 October Attack, as New Leader,” The Guardian, August 6 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/06/hamas-yahya-sinwar-new-leader.
[iii] “Yahya Sinwar: New Hamas Leader, Also Referred as ‘Dead Man Walking,’” NDTV, August 7 2024, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/yahya-sinwar-new-hamas-leader-also-referred-as-dead-man-walking-6281845.
[iv] Israel Katz, @Israel_katz, Twitter, August 7 2024, 1:21 am, https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1820910656645627980
[v] Marc DAOU, “Who’s who: Top Hamas leaders on Israel’s radar,” France 24, November 3 2023, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231103-most-wanted-the-hamas-leaders-on-israel-s-radar
[vi] “The List of Possible Targets of the Axis of Resistance in the Occupied Territories,” DEFA PRESS IR , August 5 2024, https://defapress.ir/en/news/84861/the-list-of-possible-targets-of-the-axis-of-resistance-in-the-occupied-territories.
[vii] Andie Parry et al., “Iran Update, August 5, 2024,” Institute for the Study of War, August 5 2024, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-5-2024.
[viii] CNN and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling “Ret. US general predicts how Iran could escalate attacks against Israel, other,” CNN, August 5 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/04/world/video/hertling-israel-hamas-iran-nr-digvid
[ix] Idrees Ali, Simon Lewis, and Phil Stewart “US Has Communicated Need to Not Escalate Conflict to Iran and Israel, Says Blinken ,” Reuters, August 7 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-has-communicated-need-not-escalate-conflict-iran-israel-says-blinken-2024-08-06/.
[x] 1. Jack Jeffery, “Hamas and Fatah Agree to Form a Government. What Does It Mean and Who Are These Palestinian Groups?,” AP News, July 24 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-fatah-hamas-beijing-declaration-d3cc29dd3748c77aeeda9294be6522d5.
[xi] “India Can Use Its Influence to Convince Israel to Stop Genocide in Gaza: Iran’s Envoy,” The Hindu, August 6 2024, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-can-use-its-influence-to-convince-israel-to-stop-genocide-in-gaza-says-iran-envoy/article68492635.ece.
[xii] Iryna Balachuk “Iran Requests Air Defence from Russia to Prepare for War with Israel, Deliveries Already Underway – Nyt,” Ukrainska Pravda, August 6 2024, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/6/7469111/.
By: Anushka Gupta, Research Assistant, CS3, USI.