Introduction:
The PMC Wagner, a mercenary organisation first identified in 2014 and officially registered as a company in 2022, is a network of contractors that supply soldiers for hire that was notoriously active in Africa and West Asia, which eventually spread to Ukraine to fight along Russian troops following its invasion on Ukraine. Founder and owner of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, a wealthy Russian Oligarch and mercenary chief was charged with mutiny after he amassed all his troops to rise against the Russian forces and oust the current leadership on June 25th 2023.
Advancements:
The mutiny might have been triggered by months-long feud with the Russian military over the invasion on Ukraine which posed as the biggest threat and a grave form of betrayal that the Russian President Putin has probably faced in his 22 year rule.
The Wagner Group Chief Prigozhin who has been accused of “incitement to armed rebellion” for asking Russians to support his cause against the defence minister Sergei Shoigu and others in the top military command admitted that his forces had marched into Russia and occupied the city of Rostov-on-Don on June 24th. The city served as a logistical hub that oversaw the fighting in Ukraine. In response to this the Russian President Vladimir Putin heavily criticized the rebellion considering the actions of the Wagner were “a stab in the back of our country and our people”. [i]
Russia’s FSB responded by opening a criminal investigation against Prigozhin for launching the mutiny. Shortly after the capture of Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s defence ministry sent out a statement calling the Wagner forces to abandon their leader.
The Wagner forces had marched more than halfway towards Moscow before Russian military helicopters opened fire on the convoy. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a Putin ally, promised to help quell the mercenary forces with the help of harsh methods if necessary. Soon after that reports of arms stationed on the southwest edge of Moscow by Russian soldiers came to light. [ii]
Before the tensions could trigger armed engagement and bloodshed between the Russian military and the mercenaries, leader Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered his troops return to base in the event of being offered a deal by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The deal involved calling off the coup and providing Prigozhin refuge in Belarus as actions taken against him are yet to be clear. [iii]
What this means to Russia:
The Wagner mutiny threatened Putin’s firm grip on the state of affairs, his military power in the Russian war effort. The US observed that the Wagner group’s rebellion showed “cracks” in Putin’s power. According to the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the mutiny posed a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. Speculations by experts highlight that Putin’s image of authority has drastically weakened over this incident, which might call for strict reactionary forces to repair the damage. [iv]
Even though the rebellion has been quelled temporarily, the bold faced nature of the assault will likely lead to problems in the future.
Wagner group holds immense influence in the inner echelons of the Russian order. Over the decades, the Wagner group has been known to have conducted the dirty dealings of the Kremlin in matters of foreign interest from the middle east to Africa to Latin America as it was equipped to maintain plausible deniability regarding its linkages to the Kremlin. So, if this friction leads to Wagner being pulled out of these regions it could create a vacuum which would attract the US diplomatic forces to swoop in and fill in. With China already making inroads into Africa, the US would be in for a considerable competition. If Wagner withdraws, this would pose a serious threat to some of the regimes that are sustained by it for security and protection in around 22 countries in Africa and the Middle East. This would seem like a fruitful opportunity for the West and China. [v]
The current Russian regime having invested so much in the Wagner Group is now prone to vulnerability upon any changes in the status quo, leading to shifting dynamics resulting in power hungry states aiming to fill these vacuums.
Conclusion:
Wagner Group has been vital in the Russian armed invasion in Ukraine and crucial in capturing the city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But with Prigozhin increasingly criticizing the military for its entitlement carrying factors, exposes the inter-elite pressures and blame games that have begun within Russia. This would indicate the vulnerability of Russia amidst the call for ousting Putin’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu for his misconduct. If Putin agrees to this demand, it could politically damage the image of the President for coming to terms with a backstabbing traitor, Prigozhin. [vi]
End Notes:
[i] Al Jazeera, “Why Wagner Mercenary Force Has Moved against Russia’s Military.” Military News | Al Jazeera, June 24, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/why-wagner-mercenary-force-has-moved-against-russias-military?traffic_source=KeepReading).
[ii] Al Jazeera, “Timeline: How Wagner Group’s Revolt against Russia Unfolded.” Vladimir Putin News | Al Jazeera, June 25, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/timeline-how-wagner-groups-revolt-against-russia-unfolded.
[iii] Politico, “The U.S. Needs a Diplomatic Blitz to Fill the Power Vacuum the Wagner Coup Leaves Behind,” Politico, June 25, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/25/wagner-coup-danger-opportunity-00103556.
[iv] Niko Vorobyov, “Wagner Mutiny Reflects Fault Lines in Russia: Analysts.” News | Al Jazeera, June 24, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/wagner-mutiny-reflects-fault-lines-in-russia-analysts?traffic_source=KeepReading.
[v] Politico, “The U.S. Needs a Diplomatic Blitz to Fill the Power Vacuum the Wagner Coup Leaves Behind,” Politico, June 25, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/25/wagner-coup-danger-opportunity-00103556.
[vi] The Associated Press, “Russian Mercenary Group Revolt against Moscow Fizzles but Exposes Vulnerabilities.” AP NEWS, June 25, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1.
Authored by: Sahana B Reddy, Research Intern, USI