Prime Minister Modi did not leave any stone unturned to secure India’s entry into NSG. A visit by Foreign Secretary to China on 16-17 Jun 2016 was followed up with a meeting with Chinese President on 23 Jun 2016 where India sought China’s support for its application which was to be discussed during Plenary of NSG in Seoul. However, China continued with its adversarial stance and did not support India, a non NPT signatory, in spite of overwhelming support from other members. China has averred that for non-NPT members some definite criteria should be evolved rather than granting country specific waivers. Many argue that waivers which were granted to India by NSG in 2008, allows it to engage other countries in nuclear commerce; and indeed, India has entered into such agreements with several countries like Russia, France, UK, USA, Kazakhstan, Australia, and others. However, membership of the NSG will provide greater certainty and a legal foundation for India’s nuclear regime.
India has its moment of celebration, it is being widely speculated that Foreign Secretary is all set to sign the instrument of accession into MTCR, which could happen as early as coming today, in a ceremony to be attended by the MTCR chair troika — envoys from France, Netherlands and Luxembourg. The MTCR chair troika comprises the past, incumbent and future chair of the group. India has been keen to become a member of the four export control regimes — MTCR, NSG, Australia Group and Wassenaar Arrangement. But with the nuclear deal stuck over liability issues, New Delhi’s bid to become a member of MTCR only gained momentum from April 2015, after the liability issue was resolved and the USA lent its full support for 34-member grouping — membership is decided by consensus (like NSG). All the 34 members are also the members of NSG. India’s admission to MTCR will open the way for it to buy high-end missile technology, also surveillance drones such as the Predator, made by General Atomics. Moreover, it will now be possible to sell the BrahMos, which India developed in a joint venture with Russia, to the countries in its strategic neighbourhood. In early June 2016, India’s defence minister Manohar Parrikar visited Hanoi to discuss the possibility of a sale to Vietnam, which – like India – has significant concerns over Chinese assertiveness in the region.
These developments are being widely discussed because of the implications which they have for the region and indeed for India and China relationship. Firstly, the closeness of China -Pakistan nexus (iron brothers) is clearly visible. Secondly, many are wondering why did China oppose India’s entry into NSG so vehemently this time. Is it signs of assertive China and President Xi being more comfortable with playing great power games or is China reacting to India’s growing ties with USA particularly its close defence relationship. Thirdly, how should India respond to C hina – it has leverages in the field of trade, commerce and maintaining security in the region. India will have to react to these developments; the game plan is likely to unfold in coming weeks and months.