The Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East has received a fresh impetus after Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr recently. In the largest mass execution since 1980, Saudi Arabia executed 47 people on January 2, 2016 including Shia cleric Nimr. 43 were beheaded while 4 were killed by firing squad.[1] All the victims were slapped with charges of terrorism. Nimr was regarded as the most vocal Shia leader in the oil rich eastern Saudi province of Qatif and he publicly criticized the ruling al-Saud family calling for elections.[2] The terror charges notwithstanding, the real reason behind execution of Nimr seems to be geopolitical rivalry between Shia majority Iran and Sunni dominated Saudi Arabia in Middle East and their ambitions to lead the region. Sunnis are in majority world over and also in Middle East; however, Shias are in majority in Iran, Bahrain and Iraq while they are minorities in Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Of late, there have been some developments which have made the ruling dynasty, House of Saud, insecure and vulnerable in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh, a long time US ally did not like the fact that Obama abandoned Hosni Mubarak during the Arab Spring protests in Egypt. Mubarak was a longtime American ally but did not receive US backing when he needed it the most. Would the US do the same to the Saudi ruling dynasty if it faced an existential threat? This question has made the Saudi rulers panic and insecure. The Iran-US nuclear deal too added to their apprehensions, as it would enhance Iran’s stature in the region and revive Iranian oil industry as a competitor to Saudi oil industry. Saudis also felt betrayed by the US after America’s failure to take military action against Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad—an Iranian ally—after his regime allegedly crossed Obama’s declared “red line” and used chemical weapons against civilians in Syria’s ongoing civil war.[3] The US pullout from the region and Russia’s assertive intervention in Syria has hit Saudi interests in the region making King Salman more assertive in his domestic and foreign policies.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have differing views on Yemen crisis too where Iran is backing the Zaidi Shia Houthi rebels who have been targeted by Saudi-led airstrikes. They are on the opposite sides in Syria and Iraq too. Iran and Syria were not included in the 34 nation anti-terror alliance of Islamic countries announced by Saudi Arabia in December 2015, further increasing the rift between them. Execution of Shia cleric adds fuel to the fire in Middle East. The diplomatic tussle has already begun between the countries. Iran’s supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted that divine revenge will seize Saudi politicians. There were widespread protests in Iran and Saudi embassy in Tehran was set on fire. Riyadh retaliated by cutting diplomatic ties with Iran accusing it of interfering in its internal matters. Bahrain and Sudan followed, and UAE recalled its envoy to Tehran.[4] Other Sunni Gulf Arab states such as Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, have not taken any immediate action bur are unlikely to side with Iran. Iran too has responded by banning all products from Saudi Arabia and has also prohibited ‘Umrah Pilgrimage’ till further notice.[5]
The Iran-Saudi confrontation will have an impact on fight against the ISIS, Iran-US relations, wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and the overall regional stability. The oil prices are unlikely to shoot up due to the crisis as the Saudis would like to keep the production levels high and keep their oil market intact. Decreased oil production by Saudis could allow Iran to make money when sanctions are lifted from Iran.
The crisis is nothing new for India, as it has been navigating troubled waters in Middle East for decades now and knows very well how to balance between the differing sides to safeguard its own interests.
Endnotes
[1] Saudi Arabia Carries Out Largest Mass Execution Since 1980, Jan 4, 2016, URL: http://www.eurasiareview.com/04012016-saudi-arabia-carries-out-largest-mass-execution-since-1980/
[2] Saudi Arabia executes 47 people in one day including Shia cleric, Jan 2, 2015, URL: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/02/saudi-arabia-executes-47-people-in-one-day-including-iranian-cleric
[3] Michael Petrou, Why would Saudi Arabia execute a Shia cleric? It’s all about America, Jan 5, 2015, URL: http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/why-would-saudi-arabia-execute-a-shia-cleric-its-all-about-america/
[4] Muzamil Jaleel, Simply put: Sheikh Nimr and Saudi-Iran tussle, Jan 5, 2015, URL: http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-sheikh-nimr-and-saudi-iran-tussle/
[5] Iran Bans All Products From Saudi Arabia | Prohibits ‘Umrah Pilgrimage’ Till Further Notice, Jan 7, 2015 URL: http://www.360nobs.com/2016/01/445982/
Raj Kumar Sharma is Research Associate, USI, New Delhi.