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Saudi Led Anti-Terror Alliance: A Reality Check

Raj Kumar Sharma writes: The project looks doubtful from the very beginning and their motive is under scanner. Two of the key countries, Pakistan and Lebanon have claimed that they had no clue they were in the coalition.

Saudi Arabia has recently announced a new 34-country coalition, ‘Islamic Military Alliance’ to launch their joint fight against terrorism. The new counterterrorism coalition includes nations with large and established armies such as Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt as well as war-torn countries with embattled militaries such as Libya and Yemen. African nations that have suffered militant attacks such as Mali, Chad, Somalia and Nigeria are also members.[1] Bangladesh, Malaysia, Jordan, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Lebanon are other notable members.

The joint operations center would be Saudi capital Riyadh while the rules of engagement and operations are being worked out. The coalition has announced that they will go after any terrorist organization, not just ISIS including terror outfits in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan.

The project looks doubtful from the very beginning and their motive is under scanner. Two of the key countries, Pakistan and Lebanon have claimed that they had no clue they were in the coalition. Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Aizaz Chaudhry, has been quoted as saying he only learnt of his country’s inclusion in the alliance from news reports.[2]

There have been media reports which suggest Saudi support for ISIS. Western governments were under pressure to explain their relationship with Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi and ISIS were being seen as ‘hand in glove’ by some sections. Experts see Saudi move for the alliance as a PR stunt, mainly to reposition itself in fight against terrorism. There would not be a major change over things on the ground. There have been no practical arrangements, no joint forces, no military co-ordination, no defined objectives or methods which portrays the effort as shadow boxing.

The Saudi military resources are directed against the Shia Hauthis in Yemen. The Yemen ceasefire needs to be successful if the Saudis are to divert their military resources elsewhere.[3] The alliance caters to the ‘Shia-Sunni’ divide in Middle East, as Shia majors like Iran and Iraq have been left out of the alliance. This raises doubts about possible targets of the alliance. Will it target Sunni terrorists like IS or Shia terrorists like Hezbollah and Houthis? Syria is also missing from the alliance, where Iran and Saudis have differing goals. Iran backs Assad in Syria while Saudi Arabia wants to see his back. Overall, after the US-Iran nuclear deal, Saudis fear that Iran could try to emerge as a regional hegemon which would threaten Saudi interests in the region. The alliance could be an effort to check Iranian ambitions. This could also be an effort by Prince Suleman to tighten his hold over Saudi regins.

Lastly, experts believe Pakistan is unlikely to join a military alliance that might involve sending troops to the Middle East or antagonizing Iran. Pakistani army is already tied down to its campaign against the Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas. It would not like to send its troops on a foreign mission while the fight rages on the home soil.

 

Endnotes

 

[1] Associate Press (2015), “Saudi Arabia announces anti-terror alliance of Islamic nations”, Dec 15, Online URL: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/12/15/saudi-arabia-announces-anti-terror-alliance-islamic-nations.html

[2] Rebecca Flood (2015), “Two countries had no idea they were in Saudi Arabia’s Muslim coalition to fight terrorism”, Dec 19, Online URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-announces-34-strong-coalition-of-muslim-nations-to-fight-terrorism-but-two-countries-a6779186.html

[3] Oliver Miles (2015), “Is Saudi Arabia’s anti-terrorist alliance real?”, Dec 15, Online URL: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/15/saudi-arabia-anti-terrorist-alliance-terrorism-muslim

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