Dr Roshan Writes: Recently a delegation from Japan had visited USI to discuss strategic issues. We also discussed North Korean nuclear trajectory. The issue which emerged was that the North Koreans have started working on a ‘New Strategic Line’ which is of developing Nuclear Deterrence and developing the Economy. It was stated that their nuclear doctrine speaks the language of deterrence. They have legalized their Nuclear Weapon Status and that their weapons are meant for defence against the escalatory tendencies of the Americans. Thus the nuclear weapons are basically to deter, and repel enemy aggression and attack. It was also highlighted that they are not going to use it against the Non-Nuclear Weapon State nor threaten them with those weapons. The question then arises is what are they trying to convey? Is it a sign that they are now comfortable with their nuclear status and now wants to move to more important matter of economic development. Are they trying to renew the policy of Kim Il Song. According to Bank of Korea the North Koreans annual growth rate has started growing. The interesting thing to notice is North Korea’s trade with China is also steadily but surely growing. As of 2012 it was more than US $6000 million. The Chinese share of trade is nearly 90 percent. Even the trade between North and South Korea has grown though at a lesser pace and the quantitative increase is less. If we see North Korea’s military spending then after 2012 there has been a marginal decrease in the spending and since the last two years it has been static.
All this shows that North Korea’s nuclear trajectory has the blessing of China because with so much economic dependence if China wants it can control the North Korean nuclear posture. In future it is generally believed that the Kim Jong Un will further try to tighten its grip through multiple mechanisms of fear, economic development and continuous nuclear belligerence. The series of nuclear test and missile tests indicate that the new prince is going to continue its nuclear ambition and provoke the Americans. It needs to be seen if the Americans are able to pressurize the Chinese to agree for genuine hard hitting sanctions, especially in the backdrop of South China Sea imbroglio. Both the countries had differences as far as nature of sanctions was considered. Washington wants to restrict North Korean access to international ports, tighten restrictions on North Korean banks’ access to the international financial system and call for the blacklisting of a number of individuals and entities,[i]
In future it would become imperative for countries like Japan and South Korea to strengthen their own defensive capabilities against North Korea. It would be a significant factor if Japan South Korea and US develop a trilateral strategic approach to tackle this problem. If this security alignment gets strengthened than it might put pressure on China to reassess its posture. The North Korean recent test has already strained the relations between South Korea and China and the former has already bluntly told China not to interfere in its internal matters, especially the ongoing talks between South Korea and US over the deployment of American Missile defence system. China and Russia both had objected to this deployment. This may be one of the reasons that China has agreed to expand the sanctions under the U.N. Security Council against North Korea.
If the sanctions are imposed then the North Korean nascent economic development programme would be impacted and may be then North Koreans take the route to negotiations and agree for the six party talk.
[i] U.S., China agree on draft North Korea sanctions resolution at U.N.: envoys United Nations | BY Lousi Harbonneau and Michelle Nicholas, at http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-