MH Rajesh Writes: The South China Sea has been simmering for several years due to overlapping claims and counterclaims. The verdict from Hague last year had given an unambiguous legal position on the nine dashed line, status of the features and Chinas actions in the South China Sea. This was based on a case taken up by Philippines. Subsequent elections in Philippines of President Duterte and his slant towards China had acted as a wet blanket over the matter. The planned island constructions including weapon placements were also completed leading to a period of uneasy lull for some time. Matters have resurfaced again.
The most significant shift in this issue has been the result of an election in the United States-the current global hegemon. The election ushered in a situation in Asia where support of allies was deemed an expensive proposition for US. The future of US pivot to Asia, which has been a hallmark in previous regime’s Asia policy, looked bleak. The US appeared fatigued with its hegemonic role, and tended to make allies take a fair share of the burden of global policing.
At the same time there were no signs of an abatement of tensions with China and instead, they were ratcheted up with plays on the One China Policy which is a corner stone in US China relations. The question here is if the old US policy of balancing strategy with economy as far as China was concerned is under challenge. A protectionist US trade policy, which is the current theme and mandate, and hard line politics make a potent combination in the Pacific.
President Trump, prior taking over itself when faced with a seizure of a US underwater drone by China – had reacted with indifference, albeit on twitter wherein he said-‘let them (China) keep it’. However, that situation seems to be changing now. The deployment of United States aircraft carrier strike group under command of Rear Admiral James Kilby, on board the USS Carl Vinson, is a major step in this direction which can raise the temperatures in the region.
Carrier Strike Group (CSG) One includes Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 1’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108), other than the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), and aircraft from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2,. They have begun ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea since Feb. 18.
What this deployment indicates on one end is that there could be more proactive deployments by US in the South China Sea. This also puts to rest some doubts by US allies in the region regarding future of pivot.
Chinese response through the Global Times has been on expected lines, stating that quote ‘the South China Sea is not the Caribbean. It is not a place for the US to behave recklessly. US generals said they are ready to fight when necessary. The People’s Liberation Army is also making preparations. When diplomats make efforts for peaceful and friendly ties with other nations, it is believed that the Chinese army is always on the alert. Washington has a global military presence. How can China’s deployment of defense facilities on its own islands be treated as a threat?’ Unquote.
This event is also significant considering a worsening situation in North Korea which has continued a down ward slope with irrational nuclearisation, intimidating missile tests and a transnational murder of a dissident Kim using deadly nerve agents in a public space. Overall that makes the Pacific security situation more tenuous than normal.