M H Rajesh Writes: It is the second time that Daw Aung San Su Kyi’s NLD has won an election in 25 years. Last victory could not translate into a democratic government as the Tatmadaw, the military, seized power sending Daw into a house arrest that lasted 20 years. A general’s daughter herself, she quietly fought back, and has won remarkably in this latest election. As per the law, Military with a 25% reservation in seats will share power with NLD, who will be able to field a President. This will be a proxy President, when actual reins will be with Su Kyi, who couldn’t contest due to a clause designed to exclude her.
Rajesh writes: This slow democratisation process has taken place with a carrot and stick policy of global powers which had enforced a sanction on Myanmar and at the same time engaging themselves constructively there in the past five years. This is balanced approach is a model for other parts of the world, where stick seems to be failing more often.
Myanmar sits at the cusp of South Asia and East Asia and abuts China placing itself between the Yunnan Province and Indian Ocean. China has invested deeply in Myanmar and was a key supporter of the Military regime. The relations soured recently with the Myanmar’s cancellation of a dam project by China. The Tatmadaw handling of insurgency in the border with Yunnan also accentuated the drift. Myanmar air force had crossed over to China during the counter insurgency operations.
Being a major player in the neighbourhood, relations with China is crucial for Myanmar. Similarly, as a conduit to Indian Ocean and a region rich natural resources Myanmar is important to China. Days before the elections Aung San Su Kyi had visited China and called on Chinese President. China is currently caught between an indifferent military regime and a rising democratic leader and appears to have very little choice.
What needs to be seen from Jun16 is is how the power sharing takes place on ground between NLD and Military. There are some who say there is still some distance to travel as there are 8 months before the power transfer actually takes place. The power that Su will hold over the proxy president also needs to be watched closely.
For the time being, after close to half a century of Military rule, Myanmar is on the verge of democracy again. That is a reason to celebrate, and this will end the sanctions by the west which will get Myanmar back into economic mainstream. This can help uplift millions from poverty in one of the poorest South Asian nations. To read further pleases see http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34825998