There has been frequent discussion about China’s policy of string of pearls around India by China investing in countries, which are neighbouring India. Despite Chinese investments, the recent aggressive behaviour of the Chinese would have created a feeling of insecurity in these countries about their future strategic freedom, fearing China imposing her own model of development and political system. This is evident from the fact that as on date, China stands isolated in the international arena because of her high handedness in Hongkong, locking horns with most neighbours in the South China Sea as also threatening Taiwan besides actions in Ladakh. Recently, even Myanmar government has accused China of supporting insurgents operating in Myanmar.

This may be an opportunity to build relations with such neighbours. It has been observed in the past that most small countries of the region were not vocal about their concerns about Chinese aggressive behaviour publicly, fearing that rest of the world would not support their cause against the might of Chinese economic and military power. This has now changed with all major powers highlighting the need for China to respect international laws. Chinese wanted to boast about the ‘Chinese model of development’ globally through infrastructure projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which now stands marginalised. It is also a well-known fact that Chinese have not come out clean from the Covid 19 pandemic. The world is extremely annoyed with the Chinese for delay in warning the other countries through the World Health Organisation (WHO) about the pandemic thereby, exhibiting lack of responsibility expected of a country aspiring to be a global power.

It is clear that India will need to deal with an assertive China in all theatres and spheres. To meet such challenges, it is time for India to consolidate her strategic options in the Eastern Theatre. Like it is said every crisis offers an opportunity and the Covid 19 crisis accompanied by Ladakh standoff is no different. It may be time to break the Chinese string of pearls at some places or at least loosen it. To achieve this objective, one set of countries where India must immediately concentrate is Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is not to state that other countries like Bhutan and Nepal can be ignored. Nepal probably needs to be watched closely for a while till its internal turbulence settles down. Bhutan has been a reliable partner in matters of security and economy which must be reinforced with extra effort to ensure that there is no complacency in this relationship. India must reassure Bhutan through engagement and action that India can ensure Bhutan’s security.

Myanmar and Bangladesh at this juncture are two countries that are crucial for India’s Northeast, both from economic and security perspective. A lot of effort has been put in during the last decade, which is showing results. However, the pace needs to be accelerated in case India wishes to see tangible results in the future. Bangladesh has come a long way from the time when the top leadership of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) took shelter there due to which the insurgency in Assam was kept alive despite best efforts by the security forces. Cooperation from the present dispensation in Bangladesh led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been phenomenal, which has resulted in large scale surrender or arrest of top ULFA leadership.

This has contributed immensely towards improvement of law and order situation in Assam and restoration of normalcy in the state. There is a need to take this relationship to the next level both in strategic and economic terms. Bangladesh provides the shortest supply chain connectivity from Eastern part of India to Northeast India, which can be a game changer making logistics much simpler and economical. It is a well-known fact that Agartala, the capital of Tripura is about 600 Kms from Kolkata via Bangladesh compared to 1600 kms via Siliguri in India, the present supply chain. There is an urgent need to work out the transit arrangement for road and rail movement. Both countries must set up Special Economic Zones (SEZs) on either side of the border and may be some joint ventures to create a Win-Win business situation. Seamless connectivity with ports in Bangladesh from the North-eastern states will go a long way in facilitating exports and making imports cheaper. There is a need to make Northeast a manufacturing hub, in order to take advantage of such connectivity.

Myanmar has been neglected for too long by India on grounds of idealism since it was being ruled by a military regime. In matters of national security and strategic benefits India should have engaged Myanmar throughout. The space left by India was filled by China. There is an urgent need to invest in Myanmar in developmental and connectivity projects so that the relationship is cemented. Trilateral highway and Kaladan Multi Modal Project need to be expedited. India must also cooperate on priority with Myanmar to root out insurgency on both sides of the border, which is a prerequisite for economic development. Like in the case of Bangladesh, the two countries must set up SEZs on both sides of the border, some of which could be joint. Indian and global markets can make the area a manufacturing hub and connectivity into Bay of Bengal through the Myanmar ports can transform the supply chain scenario of Northeast India.

India’s trade deficit with China in 2019 was 56.8 billion US dollars[i] whereas trade between India and Myanmar was about 196 million dollars[ii] which has increased marginally but far short of the potential. Trade between India and Bangladesh was about 9.5 billion dollars in 2018 with about .87 billion[iii] worth imports from Bangladesh. India being a big market can certainly offer preferential terms to these two countries for goods which are manufactured in these countries lest they become transit for cheap Chinese goods flooding the Indian markets especially through Myanmar. Natural gas can be imported by India to help manufacturing and other ventures in India’s Northeast. Potential of India’s cooperation with Bangladesh and Myanmar is far from realized. There is an urgent need to revisit the economic and strategic relationship with these two countries at this juncture and consolidate it before China fills that space in totality leaving no room for India to manoeuvre for India.

End Notes

[i] https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/new-solutions-needed-to-address-trade-deficit-with-india-china/story-

[ii] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/27/c_138427480.htm

[iii] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/bangladesh-india-bilateral-trade-was-9-5-billion-in-fy2017-18-fbcci-president-sheikh-fazle-fahim/articleshow/70229327.cms?from=mdr

Lt Gen Balbir Singh Sandhu, AVSM, VSM (Retd) has held a number of prestigious command and staff appointments primarily in the Counter Insurgency Operations in North Eastern states, over his 37 years of distinguished service.  A Supply Chain Management Specialist, he has extensive practical experience up to the apex level. He is currently pursuing his PhD on Security, Development and Peace in Northeast India from Punjab University Patiala.

Article uploaded on 09-07-2020
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India.