Will BJP’s gathbandhan work for 2019 elections? Or will it be one man’s army led by the brand ‘MODI’ to the victory bells?
India is a socially secular democratic country comprising of multilingual communities with varying importance. India is culturally rich and socially amicable to growth.
The largest democracy in the world goes to elections in 2019, a verdict which will frame the arguments and opinions and decide on the global democracy order. The jockey Modi and the working horse Amit Shah, will they be able to sew up an indispensable time-friendly group of allies and win not just seats but also a supremacy title: the party unchallenged and also India’s diasporic people trust of opinion as well? This time the fight will not just be limited to BJP versus Congress only, it’s going to be against a united gathbandhan of all the majority political parties of India. The weak and the meek are going to get the taste of cheese this time due to the gathbandhan.
If BJP is to win they will have to exercise the untapped ricochet potential of the South states, the 2014 election got BJP less than 20 seats of which major ones are from Karnataka (Yeddyurrapa Barron brothers), one from Tamil Nadu and one from AP. If BJP wants to have their Delhi HQ in use and of the centre of importance, Modi will have to make inroads in South States eminently.
Having lost the gateway to the South, Karnataka elections proved to be a whiplash on brand Modi and horse Amit Shah. But to re-work its magic BJP will have to work by adopting not just Stick and Carrot approach but also adding as Stick, carrot and the Guide approach. This will give them a new weight by having the reins in their hand and capturing their weaknesses.[i]
BJP’s big foray victory lap for 2019 will be sounded up if it is able to dislodge the voters in West Bengal and Odisha and Kerela. With the recent panchayat polls in 2018 in May, BJP won 5600 seats in panchayat polls, the state where it could hardly win 50 seats[ii] and it emerged as the single largest opposition party in West Bengal and in Odisha as well by the help of MP Dharmendra Pradhan. But this only wouldn’t be enough to guarantee a Modi victory in 2019.[iii]
Amit Shah’s recently started programme: ‘Contact for Support’ has been gaining momentum to meet its old NDA allies and regain their somewhere lost support and also the recent paradigm shift to be seen is that a proposal is offered to ‘L.K.Advani’ for contesting the next Assembly elections after Modi’s visit to Thailand and meeting the PM.
Surviving to all the strategies which the jockey and the horse are playing, there are extremely sensitive counter-strategist in the skin of CM K. Chandrasekhar Rao (Telangana CM). 2019 is going to witness the comeback of BJP in power but with lesser seats and never-seen-before united opposition of the majority parties.
However, there have been recent reports suggesting that TCP chief and TDP chief are in talks for a no-congress and no-BJP government at the centre with regional parties which will not be possible in 2019 election but in 2024 it will be.[iv]
End Notes:
[i] https://hbr.org/2008/02/beyond-the-carrot-and-the-stic-1
[ii] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bjp-will-win-majority-of-seats-in-west-bengal-in-2019-prakash-javadekar-1861556
[iii] https://thewire.in/government/modi-bjp-2019-southern-states
[iv] https://www.livemint.com/Politics/IqJ9jQv3nehfSDAp1MGO5O/2019-Lok-Sabha-elections-TDP-and-TRS-gearing-up-to-play-key.html
Nicely articulated. An expressive article