Sandeep Jain writes: There has been considerable excitement in the strategic circles of India as also China and Pakistan ever since China announced CPEC as a part of its ‘Belt and Road (OBOR)’ initiative. China of course is looking for better opportunities for investment as US treasury bonds became fraught with risk after 2008. For China, OBOR was thus the perfect vehicle to invest their surplus capital, deploy additional infrastructural capacities, get employment for Chinese workers as also get geostrategic leverage. All this while integrating more and more number of countries in the Chinese economic system.
CPEC also fulfils all the above stated economic objectives for China. In addition for Pakistan, it brings the much needed investment in its infrastructure. Furthermore, for both the countries it also meets critical geostrategic and security requirements. Pakistan stands to gain as Chinese military presence in the garb of protecting Chinese commercial interests deters the Indian military superiority. For China Gwadar port meets its requirement of a naval base in the Indian Ocean. This gives boost to the Chinese power projection as also expeditionary capabilities. What is even better from the Chinese perspective is that this port has an overland connectivity with Chinese mainland.
The above mentioned facts will tend to indicate that CPEC is a win-win formulation for both China and Pakistan. However, it is not so. As the alignment of CPEC passes through PoK, it has immediately raised some legal and moral dilemmas for both China and Pakistan. It is noteworthy that Pakistan does not claim PoK to be its integral part. For China also PoK at best remains a disputed territory and at worst is a part of India. The fact that this project is being touted as a corridor means that its passage through PoK has come in sharp focus and raises questions about the legitimacy of OBOR.
Let us now examine some facts. CPEC is not about connectivity and a very miniscule portion will be spent for upgrading road and rail infrastructure. Most investments will be in the power sector as also Gwadar port. The connectivity through PoK in fact came in 1979 through Karakoram Highway (KKH). It further got upgraded in 2009-2014to all weather status, in spite of all Indian protests (For record, the Chinese development of KKH was as legally and morally incorrect then as it is now).
In case the Chinese had called their future investments in Pakistan as ‘Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)’ instead of ‘CPEC’ they could have easily invested the same amount in Pakistan without raising heckles anywhere. After all each country in the world is seeking FDI from China and no one could have objected to Chinese FDI in Pakistan. However, CPEC raises the spectre of a geostrategic intervention by China in the region –which China in any case was quietly doing. CPEC has however given a rallying handle to all whose interests are negatively affected by China. It has in fact brought into sharp focus, the creeping action of China to gain a foothold in the region, brushing aside legal Indian claims. It has also mobilised negative public opinion in Pakistan as also it has become a talking point in countries like Iran and Russia. Thus in the larger analysis CPEC has been a self-goal by both China and Pakistan, they could have easily achieved all that they seek to achieve by remaining low key about it.