During the polling conducted on March 1, 2024, Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections saw a record low turnout, with only 41 per cent of eligible voters casting their votes.[1] This was the lowest ever electoral participation since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The low voter turnout has been observed despite the extension of voting times thrice and efforts by officials for weeks to boost participation levels.[2]
Ahmad Vahidi, the interior minister announced on March 4 that around 25 million people out of over 61 million eligible Iranians voted in the March 1 election for the 290-seat legislature.[3]
The current dominating hardliners had put in a lot of effort to boost the turnout, including the extension of voting hours multiple times and using the media channels to emphasize the importance of participation. Despite these initiatives, the turnout remained below expectations. This was a significant decline in the participation ratio compared to the turnout in the 2020 elections, which was 42.5 per cent, and the 2016 elections, which was 62 per cent.[4]
The low turnout has raised questions about the legitimacy and hold of the clerical establishment over Iranian citizens. It might be an apparent reflection of the eroding trust of the people in governance, the futility of the electoral process, and even the ideological dissonance amongst the young population. It can also be seen as a sign of dissatisfaction with the political as well as social structure of the State. It is pertinent to highlight that hardliners have been dominating the Parliament and political landscape of Iran for over two decades.[5] However, as these key issues are determined by the country’s top authority, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Parliament has little influence on foreign policy or Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.[6]
The ballot marked the initial voting following the protests over the demise of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, was detained under accusations of breaching the nation’s dress code for women. The election proceeded amidst Iran’s exacerbated economic turmoil due to international sanctions. Turnout in major urban cities, like Tehran, was notably lower as compared to smaller cities, with a noteworthy presence of “blank votes.”[7]
It should be noted that the activists and opposition groups had called for a boycott, arguing that a high turnout would legitimize the Islamic Republic.[8] It would not be incorrect to infer that despite all-out efforts by the government, people’s response to the boycott is an explicit reminder of growing anger and trust deficit towards policies of the current regime. Another noticeable trend was the exploitation of social media by the public to voice their discontent in digital space and circumvent the government’s control measures against protests. As per reports, social media became the means to showcase the discontent of the Iranian people as the videos and photos of the polling stations surfaced over the internet. Most of the polling stations in the capital and major cities were nearly empty, but the authorities claimed that turnout would reach the 2020 level, stating that a late surge in voting is possible by keeping the polls open for longer.[9]
In these elections, the government had high expectations of substantial voter turnout above the historic low of 2020, as they felt that a robust demonstration of political engagement would deflect the accusations that it had lost all legitimacy or was incapable of meeting the fundamental demands of the Iranian people for economic development and individual liberties.[10] Numerous seats are slated for a runoff in May this year, a trend that indicates the outcome might not be well for the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for 2025. Despite this, competition persists among conservative factions, as evident in the parliamentary race, where 15,000 contenders competed for 290 seats.[11]
Conclusion
Iran’s record low turnout in the March 1, 2024, Parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections was a significant development that reflected the challenges faced by the clerical establishment in maintaining its legitimacy amid growing economic struggles and the lack of electoral options for the people of Iran. This low turnout highlighted the dominance of hardliners in the Iranian political landscape and the limited impact of the parliament on key political issues. The next thing to monitor is how the Iranian authorities will address the implications of this historically low turnout and navigate the evolving political landscape in the Islamic Republic.
Endnotes
[1] Nadeen Ebrahim “Iran announces record low election turnout despite calls on voters to participate” CNN, March 04, 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/04/middleeast/iran-low-turnout-election-intl/index.html
[2] Parisa Hafezi, “Iran election turnout hits record low, hardliners maintain grip on parliament”, Reuters, March 05, 2024https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-election-turnout-hits-record-low-hardliners-maintain-grip-parliament-2024-03-04/
[3] “Iran’s Subdued Parliamentary Elections: A Second Round in the Shadow of Low Turnout”, Niac Action, March 05, 2024 https://www.niacouncil.org/news/irans-subdued-parliamentary-elections-a-second-round-in-the-shadow-of-low-turnout/
[4] Patrick Wintour, “Iran election: turnout sinks to record low as polls close”, The Guardian, March 02, 2024https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/01/iran-election-extended-by-two-hours-with-turnout-at-just-27
[5] Parisa Hafezi, “Iran election turnout hits record low, hardliners maintain grip on parliament”, Reuters, March 05, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-election-turnout-hits-record-low-hardliners-maintain-grip-parliament-2024-03-04/
[6] “Iran votes in first Parliamentary election since 2022 protests as questions over turnout loom”, Hindustan Times, March 01, 2024 https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-votes-in-first-parliamentary-election-since-2022-protests-as-questions-over-turnout-loom/article67902725.ece
[7] “Iran conservatives secure bulk of seats in elections: media”, The New Arab, March 03, 2024https://www.newarab.com/news/iran-conservatives-secure-bulk-seats-elections-media?amp
[8] Parisa Hafezi, “Iran election turnout hits record low, hardliners maintain grip on parliament”, Reuters, March 05, 2024https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-election-turnout-hits-record-low-hardliners-maintain-grip-parliament-2024-03-04/
[9] Nadeen Ebrahim “Iran announces record low election turnout despite calls on voters to participate” CNN, March 04, 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/04/middleeast/iran-low-turnout-election-intl/index.html
[11] Dr. Sanam Vakil, “Iran’s Electoral Facade”, Chatham House, March 04, 2024, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/irans-electoral-facade
By: Hemshikha Mishra, Research Intern, CS3, USI