SK Shahi Writes: General elections in Myanmar are scheduled to be held on 8 November 2015. Approx. 35 million voters will cast their vote for 6300 candidates’ from 93 political parties. 330 constituencies are set for lower house, 168 constituencies for the upper house, 644 constituencies for regional or state parliaments and 29 constituencies for regional or state parliaments for ethnics. The parliament comprises of the lower House of Representatives and the upper House of Nationalities. In both legislative chambers, 25 percent of the seats are reserved for the military as set in the constitution. The ruling party, USDP requires just 26 percent seats to gain majority with the help of military. However, Aung san Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy will need 67 percent to gain majority. Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) currently in power led by Thein Sein is facing stiff competition from Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). The USDP is banking on the recent inking of the National Cease Fire Agreement even though only eight groups came finally on board. The USDP is also likely to get the support of members of parliament from the Myanmar Army. In case USDP gets the majority, President Thein Sein is the front runner to continue as President. Commander-in-Chief of the Military Min Aung Hlaing is close to retirement and is another favourite for the Presidency, but may assume the role after a transitional period headed by another ex-military figure. Shwe Mann, the former No. 3 in the junta who is now speaker of House of Representatives, considered reform-minded, was the most likely figure to take the mantle from Thein Sein until he was removed from his position within the party on 12 August 2015. The NLD on the other hand is confident of winning a majority. Political observers predict the National League of Democracy, led by opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi, will defeat the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party. However, it may not get the full majority to form the government. In that case it will have to depend on Military or resort to horse trading. Aung San Suu Kyi has reiterated her desire to become the next president but constitutional changes need to take place before she would be allowed to run. However, Parliament voted against most constitutional amendments on 25 June 2015 meaning that Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become president in the election. She has clarified that she will lead any government her party forms regardless of whether she is President or not. In one of her recent TV interview with Karan Thapar, she had said that in case NLD forms the government I am going to be the leader of that government, whether or not I am the President. As per a forecast by leading expert on Myanmar there could be a degree of instability post elections. The degree of uncertainty will be extended if no party the NLD or the USDP get a clear majority. International observers of the political scene in Myanmar anticipate months of negotiations between political parties and groups after the November 8 elections before a new government emerges. Thus a coalition government is anticipated most likely led by NLD with Aung San Suu Kyi as leader of the NLD government and President to be appointed by her who is loyal to her. On the other hand she could control the government remotely with all decisions being taken after her approval. There is also an scope for her to be the speaker of the lower house which is one of the most powerful posts in the country and which at present is occupied by the regime second in command Thura Shwe Mann. This will provide her control over the parliament which may be persuaded to move an amendment to the rules that prevent her from donning the Presidential mantle.