India’s cautious response to the military coup in Myanmar is aimed at balancing China’s influence and containing insurgencies along the Indo-Myanmar border. The relationship between India and Myanmar was initially close, but stagnant after the 1962 coup.[1] India’s Look East Policy in the 1990s shifted India’s foreign policy from pro-democracy to pro-military, diminishing support for the democracy movement. In the wake of the 2021 coup, India has sealed its borders and attended military parades in Myanmar.[2] India believes China’s growing influence threatens Northeast India, which has been a concern since the late 1980s. The Tatmadaw’s (military of Myanmar) inability to take major military action against insurgents suggests that India should re-examine its realist approach to Myanmar. [3]
This year, we noticed that soldiers from Myanmar came into India after rebels attacked their military base close to the Indian border. The coup that happened in 2021 has led to remarkable cooperation among groups against the military, making it a big problem for Myanmar’s military. The military has told government workers and military personnel to get ready for emergencies. At the same time, another government is against the military, and they’re starting a campaign called ‘Road to Naypyitaw.’[4]
Also, Critics have raised concerns about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approach in Myanmar, suggesting that his efforts to cultivate a positive relationship with the military junta conflict with his support for democracy and condemnation of violence in the region. Modi’s government has taken measures to stop the inflow of Burmese refugees from neighbouring Chin State, preventing international humanitarian organisations from providing aid. India has also attended Myanmar’s Armed Forces Day, an annual military parade, and sold military weapons to Myanmar.[5] India shares a 1,000-mile-long border with Myanmar, and it may prefer not to become hostile.[6] The border areas of Myanmar are allegedly being used by separatist groups to stage attacks in India. India has economic interests in maintaining cordial relations with Myanmar’s military, as it has natural resources that would be useful for India’s high-tech industry. However, siding with the SAC (State Administration Council of Myanmar) poses risks, including widespread atrocities, a mass exodus of Chin into India, control over natural resources, and the outcome of Myanmar’s civil war. Additionally, Modi’s response to the military coup has generated tensions with the Biden administration, as they continue to disagree on the best way to respond to the coup. [7]
It can be seen that India’s policy towards Myanmar is not neutral, according to Prime Minister Isaac Khen of the National Unity Government (NUG).[8] The NUG, formed in mid-April 2021, opposes the military and is a shadow government. Khen argues that India’s Myanmar policy is closely linked to China’s policy in Myanmar and is weak in supporting pro-democracy actors. China has pledged to support the Myanmar regime, indicating a desire to deepen cooperation with Naypyidaw. Myanmar also falls under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a $100 billion economic corridor connecting Yunnan with Rakhine state oil and gas fields.[9]
However, India has expressed ‘deep concern’ following the executions of four political prisoners in Myanmar, raising concerns over the deteriorating human rights situation. Civil unrest continues in Myanmar, as the military crackdown aims to suppress protests against last year’s coup. India’s envoy Vinay Kumar met with Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin in Naypyitaw, where they discussed bilateral relations and collaboration possibilities. India has been cautious about its diplomatic relationship since the coup, condemning the violence but not reaffirming the legitimacy of the 2020 election result. The situation has become worrying after the February 2021 coup, as India has seen fit to continue with the relationship. Authorities in New Delhi cancelled a planned protest by Myanmar’s dissidents seeking refuge in India. Over 20,000 Chin refugees in India have crossed into Mizoram’s border districts, living in refugee camps.[10] The Chins are considered their ethnic brethren by powerful institutions like the Young Mizo Association and the Mizo Baptist Church. Myanmar is crucial to India’s national security and economic interests, as it has natural resources useful for India’s high-tech industry. India’s approach to the situation in Myanmar should be understood through the lens of competition with China. [11]
To summarise we can say that India is balancing its geostrategic objectives with its relationship with Myanmar’s military. While India has condemned executions and withdrew from a project to build a new port in Yangon, it also has close economic, trade, and political relationships with the military. India’s best interests lie in a stable, peaceful, and mutually prosperous relationship with Myanmar. However, India must also consider the potential impact on the country’s refugee crisis. Supporting the democracy movement and the National Unity Government (NUG) would help place pressure on the military to return to the barracks.
End Notes:
[1] Aparna Pande, “India’s realpolitik Myanmar policy”, Geopolitical Intelligence Services, 26 October 2023, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/india-myanmar-2/
[2] Prabash K Dutta, “India attends a military parade in Myanmar 2 months after the coup. Why it’s significant” India Today, 30 March 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/india-attends-military-parade-myanmar-months-after-coup-why-significant-1785075-2021-03-30
[3] Myo Min, “India’s cautious approach to the military coup in Myanmar”, East Asia Forum, 22 March 2022, https://eastasiaforum.org/2022/03/22/indias-cautious-approach-to-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/
[4] Kanupriya Kapoor and Krishn Kaushik, “More Myanmar troops fleeing rebel attacks enter India”, Reuters, 16 November 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-says-facing-heavy-assault-insurgents-three-states-2023-11-16/
[5] Vuukle, “USA, Myanmar to hold military exercises with India in Meghalaya this year”, The Tribune, 04 November 2023, https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/usa-myanmar-to-hold-military-exercises-with-india-in-meghalaya-this-year-559486
[6] Krishn Kaushik and Tora Agarwala, “India to end free movement policy with Myanmar for ‘internal security’”, Reuters, 8 February 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-interior-ministry-recommends-suspending-free-movement-with-myanmar-2024-02-08/
[7] Michael Martin, “Prime Minister Modi and Myanmar’s Military Junta”, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 22 November 2021 https://www.csis.org/analysis/prime-minister-modi-and-myanmars-military-junta
[8] Kanupriya Kapoor and Krishn Kaushik, “More Myanmar troops fleeing rebel attacks enter India”, Reuters, 16 November 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-says-facing-heavy-assault-insurgents-three-states-2023-11-16/
[9] Lucas Myers, “The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and China’s Determination to See It Through”, Wilson Center, 26 May 2020, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/china-myanmar-economic-corridor-and-chinas-determination-see-it-through
[10] Sanjoy Hazarika, “Now This Is Home For Us’: The Myanmar Chin Refugees In Mizoram”, India Spend, 10 March 2023, https://www.indiaspend.com/mizoram/now-this-is-home-for-us-the-myanmar-chin-refugees-in-mizoram-855728
[11] Murali Krishnan, “What is India’s relationship to Myanmar’s military junta?”, Deutsche Welle, 08 February 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/india-walks-diplomatic-tightrope-on-myanmars-military-junta/a-62685316
By: Sidharth Bhardwaj, Research Intern, CS3, USI