China’s decision to build a massive hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river has raised serious concerns in India. Originating in Tibet, the river flows into Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang, then becomes the Brahmaputra in Assam before merging with the Ganga in Bangladesh and reaching the Bay of Bengal. India fears that the dam could impact water flow and the downstream environment.[i]
The timing of this announcement is significant. India-China relations had been showing signs of improvement after the 2020 Galwan clashes. On December 18, India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss several issues, including trans-border river data sharing. However, it remains unclear whether the new dam project was part of their discussion. [ii]
India reacted swiftly. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized India’s well-established rights as a downstream country and called for greater transparency and open discussions to safeguard India’s interests.[iii]
Potential Impact on India
China has been considering this dam for years, but the latest announcement has reignited fears, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. With a planned power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually-three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam-the project underscores China’s ambition for hydropower dominance.[iv]
Beyond energy, the dam grants China strategic control over major rivers flowing into South Asia. Without formal water-sharing agreements, this control remains a point of contention. Experts like Brahma Chellaney warn that China could regulate water flow, withhold crucial river data, or even pollute the water, posing significant challenges for downstream nations, particularly India.[v]
Diplomatic and Strategic Challenges
India and China have a long history of border tensions, from the 1962 war to recent stand-offs in Galwan (2020) and Doklam (2017). While troop disengagements in late 2024 signaled a thaw in relations, China’s dam announcement risks reversing that progress.[vi]
A key issue is China’s lack of transparency in transnational river projects. It often acknowledges such initiatives only when satellite imagery exposes them, raising questions about its real motives.[vii] This opacity fuels distrust among neighboring countries.
A report by the Lowy Institute highlights the economic risks of China’s control over critical rivers like the Brahmaputra.[viii] Manipulating water flow, withholding flood-related data, or using water as a geopolitical tool could severely impact India’s agriculture, water security, and disaster management. These concerns underscore the need for stronger collaboration and negotiation on shared resources.
Hydrological Realities
Despite India’s concerns, some experts argue that the dam’s impact may not be as severe as feared. If it operates as a run-of-the-river project diverting but not storing water it may not drastically alter downstream flow.
Additionally, much of the Brahmaputra’s water originates from Indian tributaries, particularly in Meghalaya, which receives some of the world’s highest rainfall. A U.S. Institute for Peace report also notes that Tibet’s rain-shadow geography contributes little to the river’s overall flow. These factors suggest that while India must remain vigilant, the risks might be more manageable than initially feared.
Conclusion
India’s strong response underscores the importance of safeguarding its water rights.
This situation highlights the urgent need to update river data-sharing agreements and initiate direct discussions on trans-boundary water management to prevent future conflicts.
Former Indian Ambassador to China, Ashok Kantha, suggests integrating the dam issue into broader India-China diplomatic talks. Instead of escalating disputes, both nations should seek cooperative solutions to water management challenges.
Ultimately, resolving water disputes requires political will and open communication. If India and China engage in meaningful dialogue and establish frameworks for joint water management, they could mitigate tensions and build trust. Transforming water challenges into opportunities for cooperation would serve the long-term interests of both nations.
By: Elma Naaz, Research Intern, CS3
Endnotes
[i] Xinhua. “World’s Largest Hydropower Dam Approved in Tibet.” Xinhua News. Last modified December 25, 2024. https://english.news.cn/20241225/3b1298a2f02d4428bd76e65929571cd3/c.html.
[ii] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “23rd Meeting of the Special Representatives of India and China.” Press Releases. Last modified December 21, 2024. https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/38805/23rd_Meeting_of_the_Special_Representatives_of_India_and_China
[iii] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “Transcript of Weekly Media Briefing by the Official Spokesperson (January 03, 2025).” Media Briefings. Last modified January 3, 2025. https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/38884/Transcript_of_Weekly_Media_Briefing_by_the_Official_Spokesperson_January_03_2025.
[iv] Reuters. “China to Build World’s Largest Hydropower Dam in Tibet.” Reuters. December 26, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-build-worlds-largest-hydropower-dam-tibet-2024-12-26/.
[v] Chellaney, Brahma. “How Dangerous Is China’s Dam Project For India? Strategic Expert Brahma Chellaney Explains.”Republic World, YouTube video, posted August 27, 2023. https://youtu.be/snNkTn56iyk?si=n9qcna8SVCOEGCGC
[vi] Doe, John. “Title of Article.” BBC News, June 15, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476
[vii] Chellaney, Brahma. “How Dangerous Is China’s Dam Project For India? Strategic Expert Brahma Chellaney Explains.”Republic World, YouTube video, posted August 27, 2023. https://youtu.be/snNkTn56iyk?si=n9qcna8SVCOEGCGC
[viii] Singh, Ameya Pratap, and Urvi Tembey. “India-China Relations and the Geopolitics of Water.” The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, (published on 23 July 2020) https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-china-relations-geopolitics-water.