Putin had claimed once that “the collapse of Soviet Union was one of the greatest geographical catastrophes of the 20th century”[i]. After the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, Russia had faced confusion, decline and retrenchment. There was no domestic or international growth, as the economy of the nation was plunging. It wasn’t until after 2000 that Russia has begun to become more prominent and aggressive to outsiders, proving itself to be an emerging power in contrast to the lethargic state it was after the dissolution of USSR.
For Russia, Belarus is an important piece in its chess game. Putin dreams of restoration of an empire like Soviet Union and for Russia to become a superpower again and to not remain a regional power like Turkey. Hence, Moscow depends a lot on its satellite state, Belarus. Ever since the events of 2014 in Ukraine, Belarus has become of great importance to Russia.
Belarus being an autocracy, Russia’s biggest fear is President Lukashenko being forced to step down or the fate of Belarus after Lukashenko. Russia fears a similar “color revolution” as the one Ukraine and Georgia witnessed and it tilting towards Europe and NATO. Russia needs Belarus to continue its political influence in Europe and Baltic region. Belarus also remains as the last frontier for Russia in Europe before it is surrounded by NATO. For Moscow, integration of Russia and Belarus is the next logical step to ward off NATO’s increasing presence in eastern Europe. Russia has proposed a deeper integration of the two states via the 1996 union treaty that the countries entered into. Russia and Belarus have notionally been a ‘union’ state since 1997 but with only limited integration.
But Russia and Belarus relations haven’t been doing that well. Belarus has been losing billions of dollars in budget revenue due to Russia’s new energy tax system which actively shifts the tax burden on oil products from their exports to their extraction. Belarus claims that this new system violates the terms of Eurasian Economic Union. Belarus had earlier bought duty-free crude oil from Russia. Lukashenko has made it clear that Belarus would avoid any kind of “deeper integration” with Russia. According to Lukashenko, “deeper integration” would mean acceding to Russia. If there is one thing Lukashenko is clear on is that loss of sovereignty means loss of authority. War in Georgia and annexation of Crimea has made Belarus nervous of Russia’s expansionist intentions in eastern Europe.
Belarus is Russia’s closest ally but Minsk also suffers from secondary effects of the Western sanctions on Russia. Russia hastening its actions could result in something counterproductive as it witnessed after the annexation of Crimea and the international backlash it faced. To avoid any anti-Russia rhetoric, Moscow has to ensure that the relationship isn’t strained beyond repair. Russia is being careful in not letting Belarus slip through its finger. While Russia wants the finalization of the Union State treaty, Belarus wants to retain its sovereignty. Belarus and Russia along with Serbia are holding joint military drills starting from June 14, 2019 to June 27, 2019 called Slavic Brotherhood 2019. It is only a question of time to tell whether Russia is Belarus’ brother or Big Brother.
[i] Montefiore, Simon Sebag (2017), “What If the Russian Revolution Had Never Happened?” The New York Times. Accessed June 09, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/opinion/russian-revolution-october.html.