SK Shahi Writes: After more than 50 years of isolation and military rule, the inaugural session of Parliament on 01 February 2016, marked the start of a new era for Myanmar, which has been under army control since 1962. Parliament will pick a new president by April. It will not be Aung San Suu Kyi, and her future role remains shrouded in uncertainty. Despite an 80 percent popular mandate measured in parliamentary votes, she is barred from the highest office due to an arbitrary constitutional prohibition engineered by the former junta. Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will nevertheless be in charge, acting “above the president”, but it is unclear how this will work. She has so far given no indication as to who will take over from Thein Sein, and the NLD has no clear number two. However, Myanmar still faces a long road to full democracy. The military retains 25% of seats in parliament, giving it a veto over constitutional changes. It also still controls key sectors of the economy and ministries such as defense, interior and border affairs. In a national crisis, as defined by the generals, the military has a legal right to take control of the government, including management of the economy. Despite its strong electoral mandate, the inexperienced legislature will have to prove that it can effectively govern in an arena previously dominated by army-backed candidates. The military is choosing seasoned lawmakers and high-ranking officers to lead its bloc. This contrasts with the NLD, which has few experienced lawmakers to choose from. The military’s advantage in terms of experience will give it an upper hand in tough negotiations over legislation. But the challenges ahead – political, practical, structural and strategic – are daunting. Myanmar, a nation of 53 million people, faces enormous challenges, including widespread poverty, an underdeveloped economy and environmental degradation. There are still political prisoners, and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has faced criticism for not responding more aggressively to deadly violence by members of the country’s Buddhist majority against the Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic group. Myanmar faces acute problems of child malnourishment, ramshackle education and healthcare systems, and a chronic lack of modern infrastructure. The legacy of social division and inter-communal distrust is formidable and will take years to overcome. Myanmar remains riven by ethnic conflict involving, among others, the Shan, Karen, Kachin and Lisu peoples. Taken all together, minorities comprise about 40 percent of the population of 52 million, and most feel disadvantaged to some degree. The outgoing president, Thein Sein, signed a national ceasefire agreement last October with eight leading armed groups. But fighting continues in many states, where local people seek greater autonomy and expanded rights over resources. Significant problems persist concerning political prisoners and minority activists held without trial. Ending abuse of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state, and the broader issue of how to curb Buddhist chauvinism, is other urgent issues. Most Rohingya were barred from voting and, for the first time since independence, they have no MP in parliament. While Suu Kyi has pledged to make peace with armed ethnic groups a priority of her administration, she has been largely silent on the persecution of minority Rohingya Muslims in western Rakhine state. They are not recognized as citizens and are subject to discriminatory policies that restrict their access to work, travel, health care and education.
Myanmar has an abundance of natural resources but it needs to prove its good governance capabilities to attract foreign investment. The country’s gems, jade and other minerals are largely concentrated in ethnic minority regions where armed groups continue to clash with government troops, making peace a critical component of any economic plan. While direct foreign investment soared to more than $8 billion last year, many of Myanmar’s largest businesses — from jade to oil — are under the control of the military. “Several political and military officials in Myanmar and intelligence officers in Yunnan expect Beijing and the NLD to strike some kind of arrangement after the NLD forms a new government in a few months. “China would press ethnic rebel groups to cooperate with the NLD on a national ceasefire accord, handing Aung San Suu Kyi a victory that has eluded the current government. In exchange, the NLD would yield to important Chinese interests in Myanmar, such as major infrastructure and investment projects.”
Despite the challenges, there is a sense of optimism on the streets of Yangon. I think (Suu Kyi) will bring good changes to the country, it may take time, but I believe democracy in Myanmar is heading in the right direction.