That the world’s sole, yet overly fatigued militarily and financially weary superpower, the US, is looking more than desperately for a face-saving exit strategy, which has been on the US agenda for years. It’s well on the cards that since this is an election year for the US presidency the Americans, propelled by their mercurial president, Donald Trump, will try and effect a hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan. It goes without saying that any such materialization, without agreement between the various warring stakeholders, will most likely push the hapless Afghanis to the brink of a civil war.

The Americans, since the last year and a half, through many rounds of protracted and tenuous negotiations with the powerful albeit grossly fundamentalist Afghan Taliban had managed to sign on 29 Feb 2020 a semblance of a peace-making deal. The Taliban has been smelling victory since the last couple of years and taken rigid stands with the US and the duly democratically elected Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul. This peace deal called for the Kabul government to release 5000 Taliban prisoners held with them in exchange for 1000 Afghan government prisoners in custody with the Taliban. President Ashraf Ghani, distrustful of the Taliban, appears to be having second thoughts regarding the swapping of prisoners restricting them to around 1500 to be released. The other point of contention between him and the Taliban has been the latter not agreeing to Ghani’s list of negotiators for a final peace deal slated between the Taliban and the Kabul government.

It is not just the wily and violence – perpetrators Taliban who can be solely blamed for the current breakdown between them and the Kabul government, but the growing political chasm between President Ghani and his main rival Abdullah Abdullah, the erstwhile CEO in the previous Ghani government, is also to blame to some extent. After the hotly contested Afghan presidential elections, both Ghani and Abdullah announced their respective victories and on 9 March held individual swearing-in ceremonies in Kabul. However, the Americans, without saying so in so many words, appear to have favoured President Ghani as the elected Afghan president.

After the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompei, who rushed to Doha and Kabul a couple of weeks back, failed to resolve the differences between Ghani and Abdullah, the US angrily withdrew the US $ 1 billion grant to Afghanistan. This strong step by the US appears to have chastened, somewhat, both the pretenders to Kabul’s throne for they both are more than aware of impoverished Afghanistan’s financial health. Owing to the current coronavirus pandemic seriously afflicting most donor nations of Afghanistan, it is just a matter of time for these nations to withdraw their financial aid to Kabul, thereby causing the already stressed Ghani administration to go into a financial tailspin.

Some internal negotiations, prodded by the US, could resolve the political impasse in Kabul’s ruling dispensation. Abdullah Abdullah does carry adequate support among the non-Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan and thus cannot be ignored in any future power -sharing arrangements in that nation. It will indeed be a sad day for Afghanistan if President Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah fail to resolve their differences. The fragile peace accord between the US and Taliban can only see the light of the day if both Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah synergise their stance and efforts to determinedly manage the increasingly powerful Taliban. The so-called intra-Afghan process to resolve their differences and give peace a chance appears rather abysmal at the moment.

The US and other nations like Russia, Iran and India too must endeavour to support the Ghani government and equally bolster the combat capabilities of the Afghan National Army.  China’s past record in the region clearly displays that it will doggedly pursue only its own geo-political ambitions oblivious of the poor Afghanis quest for peace and some stability. Neighbouring Pakistan, in any case, remains fixated with its goal for having a pliant regime in Afghanistan and keeping in check India’s influence spreading in that nation. That the Afghan Taliban has virtually permanent sanctuaries in Pakistan keeps the latter’s influence over the Taliban something to be reckoned with.

India is widely respected in Afghanistan for its non-interference in Kabul’s internal affairs and restricting itself to genuine soft-power initiatives. Its grant of $ 2 billion and more in development, infrastructure, power, education, medical projects and its training the Afghan National Security Forces and their police etc have won the hearts of the local Afghans. However, it is also equally a fact that the Pakistanis have managed to keep India out from any major policy consultations as regards Afghanistan’s future. India must not get overly worried as regards this aspect but pursue a straight and consistent path which goes to ameliorate the overall political and socio-economic health of Afghanistan. It must do whatever is possible to assist Afghanistan to manage the current coronavirus crisis.

From the trends existing in troubled Afghanistan currently, many analysts opine that it is just a matter of time when the Taliban will come into power in the immediate future in Afghanistan as all other stakeholders remain hopelessly divided. The Afghan Taliban, on the other hand, remain strongly united and are already, unofficially, governing nearly half of Afghanistan especially in the predominantly Pashtun regions. Thus, many Indian diplomats are of the opinion that the Indian government may wish to rid itself of its traditional abhorrence towards the Taliban and discreetly open channels of communication with them also while supporting the current Ashraf Ghani administration. In diplomacy, all options need to be explored in larger and future national interest and thus India must be prepared to deal with all Afghan dispensations, of whatever political hue, in the future.

The recent gruesome attack on Sikh worshippers in the Guru Har Rai Gurudwara in Kabul by IS terrorists has added another unfortunate dimension to India’s policy towards Afghanistan. Though there are just a few thousand Hindu and Sikh people left in Afghanistan, it is well-nigh impossible for the already stretched and beleaguered Ghani administration in Kabul to provide any security to the minorities. Perhaps a strong regime like the Taliban, if it desired, could do so. Nevertheless, it is a matter of time, maybe weeks, that the exodus of Sikhs and Hindus from Afghanistan to India, Canada and other nations will commence.

Afghanistan’s geo-political significance to India will only grow in the coming years and thus the Indian government must carefully weigh its options on its Afghan policy for the foreseeable future. India should therefore prepare itself for the likely power vacuum which will ensue with the likely US exit from Afghanistan and be prepared to work with a democratically elected government or even with a Taliban predominant dispensation.  In the pursuit of national interests no one should be permanently classified as an untouchable!

Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd)

(A leading military thinker and a prolific strategic affairs writer, Lt Gen Kamal Davar was the first DG of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency and Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff)

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India.