Sandeep Jain Writes: Militancy in J&K and violence has come down over the preceding decade. While cross border infiltration continues, it is no more at the same levels as it was in early nineties. This is due to many factors- larger presence of security forces both on LC and hinterland and the AIOS (Anti-Infiltration Obstacle System) being the main ones amongst them. Thus the security forces have been able to create a space for the political process to take place. The democratic process has been fully established with repeated instances of mass participation in various types of election at regular intervals. The separatist leaders also are perceived to be losing their mass appeal. Tourists have once again started visiting the state[i]. Amarnath yatras are generally peaceful. The incidents of mass stone pelting as witnessed in 2009-2010 have also abated. In light of the above mentioned processes, there is a growing perception shared by politicians, journalists and sections of the armed forces that the State is limping towards normalcy and once the present generation of separatist leaders is gone, mainstream integration would be possible. Continuing Pakistan support is possibly seen as the only hurdle to complete normalcy. Certain ground realities have definitely changed over a period of time. Education and connectivity have percolated to the remotest corners of the state. Even franchises of schools like DPS can be found in remote districts. The state schemes for education of children in general and girl child in particular seem to be succeeding. In fact the State has seen a jump of over 13% in overall literacy rates in the last decade[ii]. This is already having an impact upon social thinking wherein, days of ignorant and uneducated youth being readily available for militancy are over. The rich are sending their children to other states or even abroad for education and seeking job opportunities elsewhere. There is a large immigration of labour work force[iii] as the average locals want to outsource their manual labour, if they can afford it. The activities such as running of apple orchards are increasingly being done by immigrants – largely from Bihar. They do not have any land ownership rights. However, some of them have started marrying local girls and settling down. May be in times to come they may get voting rights or a greater political voice. Advent of social media and internet is another change in the society which has changed the perceptions of people, just like anywhere else in the country. The local populace is today much more aware and connected with the outside world. Specially the Valley, which was isolated by geography for so many preceding millenniums, has now been liberated by these tools. There is also a much greater assimilation with the national mainstream in terms of youth seeking jobs and education outside the state. The Kashmiri Pandits are not in a position to return to the valley as the security situation is still not conducive. They are also getting good compensation for their losses, again funded largely by central government as also many have permanently settled in Jammu, Delhi or other cities. The next generation has little emotive connection with their home state. The likelihood of the pandits returning en-masse to the valley either now or later is remote, unless the thought of earmarking special areas for them as was initially mooted by the present government somehow comes about. There is also now a clear polarization wrt ethnic and religious composition of Ladakh, Jammu and the Valley regions. A trifurcation of the state would have been the logical next step. This however is unlikely due to legal hurdles as also the fact that the Valley as a separate state would be more susceptible to Pak propaganda. The political parties also have their core constituencies accordingly. The political parties are therefore largely happy with a status quo and with the exception of a few. There is very little development in terms of industry, outside investment etc. This is mainly for two reasons. The prime reason being that the State already gets large quantum of central assistance in terms of funds. Unlike other states they do not have to worry about wooing investors as all their shortfalls are met by central grants. The resistance to any dilution to article 370 partially also stems from this convenient arrangement. The resultant effect is poor infrastructure, which coupled with harsh climatic conditions further keeps investors away. In view of the aforesaid changes in the political, economic and social fabric of the society the fundamental nature of the unrest in the state is likely to change in the future. The negative stimulus from Pakistan is not likely to go away anytime soon. However, they are unlikely to be able to recruit militants as easily as was the case in early nineties. Any educated person, more so educated mothers do not want to send their children to any militant outfit, irrespective of the ideological moorings. Some educated youth may still join, as has been demonstrated in various incidents of terrorism, elsewhere in the country. However, their numbers are likely to remain small and mass recruitment, as was done in early nineties, is unlikely to be repeated. The society has borne the scars of more than two decades of militancy and low intensity conflict. The present generation of youth has not seen a normal environment. This has resulted in politicization of the entire society. The incidents of mass stone pelting or demonstrations have reduced but have not gone away. The village or town level demonstrations continue for frivolous and even concocted reasons. The state apparatus is deemed to be responsible for anything and everything going wrong in the lives of the common man and the society retaliates with a bandh or a demonstration. Rest of the country lives with similar instances of state inefficiency or apathy in their day to day lives without protesting or use Jugaad to set things right. Larger participation or turnouts in elections may also be result of this political consciousness. Overall there seems to be a sense of isolation and in turn a belief in free entitlement as a right due to this exclusive status. This has been compounded with a host of social problems. The state continues to have a very low sex ratio which is further on the decline even as the population is rapidly growing[iv]. There is lack of job opportunities due to lack of development. There is a stark divide between the rich and the poor and the middle class is limited. Exposure to the outside world has led to increased aspirations for a better quality of life. The state is also likely to remain polarized on religious lines for obvious reasons. Corruption has become a major problem. Any state which faces low intensity conflict tends to spawn a politician-contractor nexus and J&K is no exception. This results in large part of development remaining confined on paper alone. This aspect further exacerbates the sense of neglect in the society. All these factors combined may now cause unrest fueled by unemployment, lack of opportunities, State not being able to support the aspirations of the society and overall low quality of life. This unrest can still be harnessed by inimical interests to spawn trouble. It is in this context that Article 370 becomes a paradox. The aspirational challenges for higher growth are not peculiar to J&K. Every Indian state and also the country are faced with the same challenge. However, the manner of their tackling this challenge is different. The country as also all the states are actively wooing investments and industrialization as drivers of growth. Infrastructure and capacity building are the buzzwords in this new age. Recent relaxation of FDI norms by GOI were lauded by all. On the other hand, J&K seeks to keep itself in perpetual isolation. There is little effort to seek investments and spur growth. Article 370 coupled with disturbed status and poor climatic conditions will keep investors at bay. The economy of the State is primarily agrarian supported by tourism. Large employment is also provided by the permanent deployment of central forces in the state. Agrarian economies come under stress with increasing population, mechanization and urbanization all of which is now happening in J&K. Unless the state finds alternative service or manufacturing sectors to harness the youth the unrest can only grow. The state has a unique opportunity to break away from the spiral of violence but is unable to capture it. It remains shackled by Article 370. The provision which was meant to protect its interests may become its nemesis. End Notes [i] http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-02-06/news/58878847_1_jammu-and-kashmir-kashmir-valley-tourist-arrivals [ii]The Hindu-Updated: April 7, 2011 15:58 IST [iii] Indian J. Innovations Dev., Vol. 1, No. 9 (September 2012) ISSN 2277 – 5390 Problem of Migrant Work force and protection of Human rights in Jammu & Kashmir State Mohd Mazammil Hussain* Department of Sociology, Government MAM PG College Jammu, Jammu & Kashmir, India. Corresponding author: Mohd Mazammil Hussain, Department of Sociology, Government MAM PG College Jammu, Jammu & Kashmir, India. Email: mazammalhussain@gmail.com [iv] http://www.census2011.co.in/census/state/jammu+and+kashmir.html