The visit of Sri Lankan President Anura K Dissanayake to India between December 15-17, 2024[i], manifested a significant moment in the unfolding dynamics between the two neighbours. As President Dissanayake set out on his first foreign visit since assuming office, the implications are profound for India’s foreign policy, particularly in the context of the increasing turbulence in and around, characterized by geopolitical maneuvering and internal fluctuation. This piece tries to understand the visit and analyze the same by applying Kautilya’s Mandala theory which outlines a concentric circle of states around a kingdom, differentiating them into friends, adversaries, and neutral powers.
President A K Dissanayake’s visit came at a time when Sri Lanka was coming out from a devastating economic crisis that peaked in 2022 and also led to widespread unrest among the people in the country. The new President representing the National People’s Power (NPP) party which came to power to rebuild the crisis-hit economy at the same time maintain its foreign policy goals, of keeping ties with countries.
The Sri Lankan President commenced his India visit by meeting the Indian External Affairs Minister, Finance Minister, and National Security Advisor, followed by the most waited bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra[ii], in which both the leaders discussed various range of topics from maritime security, trade and investment to the humanitarian approach towards the livelihood of fisherman[iii]. PM Narendra Modi specified that physical, digital, and energy connectivity will be important pillars of the partnership between the two countries. Reciprocating to which President Dissanayake assured that Sri Lanka ‘will not have their land… be used in a manner that is detrimental to the interest of India in any way’.
India has viewed Sri Lanka as one of the closest partners in the Indian Ocean Region, as it shares a deep historical, cultural, and economic relationship, with China in the picture and Sri Lanka’s increasing cooperation with China in terms of investments, has raised some concerns in the strategic realm of New Delhi. In addition to this ‘India’s neighbourhood’ which has been one of the important points in the focus of the Indian Government is undergoing serious fluctuations, whether the miscalculations in playing its cards in Bangladesh or other neighbours giving a field to India’s competitor China.
Kautilya, one of India’s great strategic thinkers has proposed his ‘Mandala Theory[iv]’ in his seminal contribution ‘The Arthashastra’[v] remains prominent in comprehending India’s foreign policy of the day. Thereby, the importance of this visit can be analyzed from the prism of ‘Mandala Theory’.
The central position in the Mandala theory is that of ‘Vijigishu’, notably there can be more than one Vijigishu in the same mandala, with similar goals and potential strength. In the context of South Asia, India which is aspiring to be a “Global leader”, and also as the largest growing economy can easily fit in the position of a ‘Vijigishu’. Dissanayake’s first state visit to India symbolizes a willingness to engage and possibly coordinate Sri Lanka in India’s sphere of influence. The discussion held at the highest level also exemplifies a mutual desire to cooperate cordially and address security challenges in the region.
Sri Lanka, in line with the Mandala framework[vi], finds itself in the role of ‘Udasina’ translated as ‘neural’ state, as it asserts its neutrality when both China and India are in question. This can be seen from the recent developments, when on one hand Colombo assures New Delhi of not letting its soil be used against Indian interest, however on the other front it struggles to stop the deployment of spy ships[vii], through which China wants to maintain its strategic influence in the Indian Ocean. The new administration’s willingness to engage with India from the beginning is a positive sign for India where India can hope that Sri Lanka’s relationship with China doesn’t dominate the bond Sri Lanka shares with India, at the same time respecting India’s strategic and geopolitical interests.
To further understand the implication of the Sri Lankan President’s visit, Kautilya’s Shadgunya Siddhant (six-fold policy) for interacting with neighbours offers valuable understandings. This policy outlines six actions namely Sandhi (Making Treaty), Asana (Neutrality), Samsraya (Alliance), Dvaidhibhava (Double policy), Yana (Marching), and Vigraha (War). India’s interaction with Sri Lanka and visits of this kind exemplifies elements of Sandhi and Dvaidhibhava. On the one hand, a visit like this enhances economic cooperation which visualizes a commitment to peaceful co-existence. On the other hand, Sri Lanka seeks to strengthen ties with India, and the concurrent engagement with China must also be managed prudently, to which India is also a vigilant observer.
In Conclusion, this visit by the Sri Lankan President signifies a pivotal moment in the bilateral relationship between the two nations, presenting an opportunity to pontificate mutual concerns and elevate the ties. For India, this visit is not only about maintaining a cordial relationship but also securing its strategic interest in the Indian Ocean Region. By encouraging a cooperative relationship, India can safeguard stability in its sphere of influence and strengthen its role as a major power in South Asia. Kautilya’s Mandala theory therefore provides a roadmap that can be embraced to navigate geopolitical complexities through tactical foresight and pragmatic diplomacy.
By: Pritam Sarbabidya, Research Intern, CS3, USI
Endnotes:
[i] Shubhajit, Roy. “Sri Lankan president Dissanayake meets PM Modi, vows not to let the country’s territory be used for anti-India activities.” The Indian Express, December 17, 2024. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/modi-sri-lanka-president-dissanayaka-visit-bilateral-ties-9727723/
[ii] Yeshi, Seli. “Sri Lankan President Dissanayake meets PM Modi on his first foreign visit, thanks India for financial aid.” The New Indian Express, December 16, 2024. https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2024/Dec/16/pm-modi-holds-talks-with-sri-lankan-president-disanayaka-countries-to-boost-defence-energy-trade-ties
[iii] Mohit, Pandey. “PM Modi, Sri Lankan President Dissanayake hold delegation-level talks, discuss trade and security | WATCH.” India TV, December 16, 2024. PM Modi, Sri Lankan President Dissanayake hold delegation-level talks, discuss trade and security cooperation | WATCH – India TV
[iv] Shobhit Mishra. “Kautilya’s Mandala Theory”. Research J. Humanities and Social Sciences. 3(1): Jan- March, 2012, 145-148. https://rjhssonline.com/HTMLPaper.aspx?Journal=Research%20Journal%20of%20Humanities%20and%20Social%20Sciences;PID=2012-3-1-32
[v] Kajari, Kamal. “Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Indian Strategic Culture and Grand Strategic Preferences.” Journal of Defence Studies, Vol. 12, No.3, 2018. https://idsa.in/system/files/jds/jds-12-3-2018-kautilya-arthashastra-kajari-kamal.pdf
[vi] Budhaditya, Ghosh. “Kautilya’s Mandala Theory”, August 11, 2022. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4223665 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4223665
[vii] Dipanjan, Roy Chaudhury. “Chinese spy ships visiting Lanka to collect info about India and mineral, ecological treasure in Gulf of Mannar”. The Economic Times, November 08, 2023. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/chinese-spy-ships-visiting-lanka-to-collect-info-about-india-and-mineral-ecological-treasure-in-gulf-of-mannar/articleshow/105049192.cms?from=mdr