Indian academics consistently discuss the Non-Existent ‘Tug-of-War’, between India and China with respect to Maldives. Why non-existent? It is very important to prove the point. The Chinese are approximately 60 % of Maldivian Debt,[i] the debt trap figures are very difficult to ignore. In contrast ‘What is the Indian Footprint in Maldives?’ We are not even consistent and timely in our project completions.[ii]

Has India fallen behind its influence on Maldives? At present the answer points towards a bold Yes. China has undertaken multi fold initiatives from arming MNDF to creation of artificial islands. Our strategic analysts have to answer that why these multi spectrum aid to Maldives is carried out by the Chinese. A brief background check on Maldives and current dispensation will highlight the internal issues staring at Maldives, namely, Poverty, unemployment, radicalization, Corruption and most importantly Climate Change. It is evident that China has taken concrete steps towards targeting Maldives for its long-term colonialization project, after ascertaining fault lines of Maldives.

Some studies suggest that Climate Change is going to make 80% of Maldives unsuitable for habitation.[iii] In the same vein, many Maldivians are buying properties in Sri Lanka and Australia.[iv] The last President has also opined that Maldivians can be the World’s first Climate Refugees.[v] If this is the case then why China is up and about in acquiring and building artificial Islands in Maldives and increasing the tourist influx on the archipelago. The goal is long term and though the location is Indian Ocean, the main adversary is US and its base at Diego Garcia. Chinas design is to make these artificial islands and permanently settle down their military bases. How much this idea presently looks ridiculous, it is a prognosis which can be looked through the prism of unique Chinese stratagems.

Stratagem 1: Deceive the heavens to cross the sea.  It implies that one should cover one’s aims from those in authority who lack vision by not alerting them to one’s movements or any part of one’s plan.[vi] The real goal of Chinese is not to help Maldivians, but take a long view like advocated by Deng Xiaoping, and build a chain of artificial islands which they have taken on short lease from Maldivians and militarize them in future. The Chinese expertise in building artificial islands is very well demonstrated in the South China sea.

Stratagem 2: Befriend a distant state and strike a neighbouring one.[vii] This would be classical case in which China has developed Maldives to such an extent that it finds a good foothold in the Indian Ocean.

It is worth pondering on this scenario and build an ideal response strategy for countering long term Chinese plan.

 

Endnotes:

[i] Bardhan, Arya Roy, and Soumya Bhowmick. “Strategic crossroads: Maldives’ debt dynamics with China.” ORF, March 15, 2024. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/strategic-crossroads-maldives-debt-dynamics-with-china.

[ii] “Pres Says ‘saddened’ by Unfinished Bridge; Affected Election | Atoll Times, 2 October 2023, https://atolltimes.mv/post/news/5768.

[iii] CGTN. “Maldives Climate Change: Surveys Says 80 Percent of the Maldives’ Islands Will Be Underwater by 2050,” November 30, 2023. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-11-30/VHJhbnNjcmlwdDc2MjA4/index.html.

[iv] The Hindu. “Maldives to Battle Rising Seas by Building Fortress Islands,” n.d. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/maldives-to-battle-rising-seas-by-building-fortress-islands/article67558637.

[v] Ibid

[vi] Wikipedia contributors. “Thirty-Six Stratagems.” Wikipedia, September 26, 2024. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six Stratagems.

[vii] Ibid

 

 

Blog By: Research Scholars, CS3, USI