BRICS aims to democratize the international system and Islamabad wants its relevance in this order
While applying to join BRICS ( five-nation bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Islamabad said, “We believe that by joining BRICS, it can play an important role in furthering international cooperation and revitalising inclusive multilateral.[i] Islamabad also hopes that BRICS will move forward on its request in line with its commitment to inclusive multilateralism.
Unlike the European Union or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, BRICS is neither a free-trade pact nor a customs union nor a military alliance. As a group, BRICS is yet to really define itself. Although the BRICS countries comprise more than 40 percent of the global population and represent almost a quarter of the global economy, it is not yet a formal organization either. It remains a group of member states whose leaders meet annually.
Pakistan is one of many countries flocking to BRICS against the backdrop of a new, multipolar world order. At the BRICS meeting in South Africa in August 2023, at least forty countries expressed interest in joining the group. At the end of the three-day summit, the bloc announced that six countries – Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran would join BRICS in 2024. China refers this expansion as ‘BRICS plus’. [ii]
Russia and Pakistan have of late been strengthening diplomatic and economic ties. In June 2023, Pakistan received a consignment of Russian oil, the first delivery of Russian crude to the country since western sanctions against Russia kicked in at the start of the war in Ukraine. This indicates that Russia, as chair of the 2024 BRICS summit, may well extend its support to Pakistan in its quest for membership. Pakistan is trying to connect dots with both Russia and China to make sure that India, its perennial rival, did not oppose its application. China, has encouraged Pakistan because its membership will help expand the group, which will ultimately help Beijing cement its claim to a much bigger role in geo-politics.
Pakistan’s much dependence on United States
In December 2023 , Pakistan’s chief of army staff, General Asim Munir, visited the United States and met top civil and military officials. The aim of the trip was to bring the United States back into a more active role in the region, although in a limited sense, and pushing for a more balanced bilateral relationship[iii]. Pakistan will not be able to maintain a balanced approach to Washington DC while being part of the BRICS agenda of a multi-polar world order, which necessarily means the erosion of the United States’ position as a unipolar power center.
Pakistan’s options are further limited by the fact that its economy remains on life support supplied by the US-dominated International Monetary Fund (IMF). Moreover, the United States remains Pakistan’s largest export market. It accounts for more than 21 percent of Pakistan’s total exports.[iv]
While BRICS might look like an attractive option for countries seeking to draw maximum benefit by diversifying their foreign ties, the big question is whether Pakistan can expect any material benefit by joining BRICS and adopting its agenda of a multi-polar world. The answer is that Pakistan risks losing much more than it gains since the move might antagonize Washington DC, pushing it to block Pakistan’s access to Western markets and finance.
India in BRICS and QUAD
While BRICS is yet to develop a formal organizational structure, it has many international problems and contradictions. For one thing, the India-China rivalry can seriously limit the bloc’s potential to push for a new world order. For India, any shift towards a multipolar world does not necessarily bring tangible benefits. Such a new order will still have China and Russia as two dominant players. India, therefore, opposes any overt anti-west position. It is actively seeking strong defense ties with the United States to tackle China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region. In November 2023, at the session of the ‘2+2’ ministerial dialogue a meeting of the external affairs and defense ministers of India and the United States where Washington-New Delhi agreed to advance the partnership in international peace, security and specifically working to promote rules-based order. New Delhi and Washington’s defense cooperation can be a key pillar of that work.[v]
Pakistan Should not opt for Multi-Polar World
As of now, Pakistan has promising economic ties only with China among the members of the bloc. It remains to be seen what material economic benefits the group which does not have any internal trade treaty, or a customs or financial can bring to Pakistan.
For Islamabad joining BRICS does not seem like the right strategy. A more feasible path to maintaining a diversified foreign policy is available by operating outside of BRICS. Pakistan can continue to have strong ties with China and maintain ties with Russia without subscribing to their push for a new, multi-polar, anti-US world order.
Endnotes:
[i] Abid Hussain, “Pakistan seeks BRICS membership despite India roadblock”, Al Jazeera, May 25,2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/24/pakistan-seeks-brics-membership-despite-india-roadblock
[ii] Srikanth Kondapili, “BRICS plus six: New interests, traditional agenda”, Deccan Herald, May 25,2024,
https://www.deccanherald.com/world/brics-plus-six-new-interests-traditional-agenda-2662324
[iii] Maleeha Lodhi, “Resetting Pakistan-US Ties”, Arab News PK, May 25, 2024,
https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2432926
[iv] Ayesha Afgun, “Imports and Exports of Pakistan- Need to Explore New Markets”,Insight,ISS no.02 (Novermber 2022):1-3. https://issrapapers.ndu.edu.pk/site
[v] News Desk, “India-US holds 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue”, The Economics Times, May 27,2024
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-us-hold-substantive-22-dialogue-focus-on-expanding-strategic-ties-west-asia-situation/articleshow/105122286.cms?from=mdr)
By: Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, Research Intern, CS3, USI