An analysis of the spread, indicates the following,

• While India has crossed the 70,000-mark (as on 12 May 2020, figures at 1200h), four states – Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Delhi (in that order) account for over 67 percent of the cases;

• Even within these states the major cities, Mumbai, Pune (to some extent), Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Surat, Chennai, and the North, NE & East districts of Delhi, account for over 50 percent of respective cases;

• This implies that in the rest of the states either the curve has flattened and turned down, or is flattening;

• Even in the rural / semi-rural districts that are red, the cases appear to be clustered more in some taluks, panchayats and villages;

• In the urban centres, the spread is more in some wards and localities than the rest;

• Why is this granular picture not being depicted by the government and the media channels? Is this being utilised for preparing the exit strategy?

• A clearer picture will emerge as the indigenous testing kits are extended to all the rural, semi-rural, mofussil townships and semi-urban centres to ensure the four Ts are implemented – testing, tracing, tracking and treatment;

Unless a clear understanding of the spread is grasped, it would be exceedingly difficult to prepare and actualise an effective exit strategy. A look at some of the key sectors could give clarity on the issues that would also need to be considered.

Manufacturing Sector

The backbone of the manufacturing sector are the MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises). They account for around 63 million units in India (mainly in rural and semi-urban areas), contribute around 29% to India’s GDP and 49% to its exports. This sector provides employment to over 120 million people and produces nearly 10000 products, ranging from traditional to high tech precision items. Most, if not all, depend on migrant labour, which is now going to be an issue since the states have not held their hands and have literally forced these migrant labourers to go back to their homes. While the states may claim that they will use domicile labour, but can this shortfall be made up? Has any state done a field survey and research study on this aspect?  From the available data, it seems not.

Industrial Sector

The MSMEs provide the backbone to this sector and the Indian economy. All large industrial houses depend on these for ancillary cover. No Maruti or LG India or any other such company can start effective production without the support of these MSMEs. Yet the very oxygen of these companies – the migrant labourers, have been choked out.

Further, these companies, along with the large industries, would need support by way of availability of trained labour, capital, resources, and raw material. The government would need to do some hand holding in the initial stages – not just the Central Government, but the State Governments also, who have a major stake in the revival of the economy.

Agriculture Sector

While it is heartening to note that India has had a bumper rabi crop, for which the central and state governments helped the farmers by arranging mechanical means for harvesting and ensuring the collection, storage and distribution of the harvested crop. Migrant labourers were also available, especially for collection and loading. What next, is the question when it is time to sow the Kharif crop? The question that arises is that will this lack of labour impact this Kharif crop? Or would the governments make some arrangements again?

Education

This is one sector that has taken a very major hit. There are voices that promote virtual / digital learning, but the bulk of India’s rural, semi-rural, mofussil townships and government schools in urban centres are not digitally connected and nor are its students. Students in the 10 – 12^th classes and the colleges are affected since the exams are yet to be completed. With the competitive entrance exams to technical institutions delayed, the class of 2020 appears to have lost a year.  This will also have psychological impact on some students that would need attention by the child-psychologists, teachers, parents, and student-counsellors.

Policing

The police are implementing the strict lock down norms, especially in the urban centres and the red and orange districts. Due to this, the usual physical crime rates are down. But a 24/7 deployment for over six weeks, is highly detrimental to health (both physical and mental) and stamina of this law-and-order force, which may have to deal with a spurt in the crime rates post the lock down. Such continuous deployment would also lead to higher stress levels, raising the risks of harsh measures by the police. By not utilising the police intelligently, utilising the granular data of the spread of COVID, the police are now also deployed in areas that should ideally not need such a close and tight monitoring. The Centre may need to look deployment of CAPFs to overcome this problem.

Construction Sector

This sector is the worst hit by lockdown. While the larger construction companies may still be able to look after their staff and workers, both local and migrant, the medium and smaller companies (small and micro) would not possess the necessary economic heft for it.

Exit Strategy

Life will not revert to normal, as it was prior to the pandemic, anytime soon. Physical distancing and the medical guidelines would be part of the new normal for some time to come, till the COVID vaccines are fielded and people develop immunity. Hence, some of the factors that ought to be considered for the exit strategy are listed below,

• The nomination of districts and cities as red, yellow, or green zones needs to be reviewed. It should be kept at taluks / panchayats, or village, in rural & semi-rural areas and at localities / wards / societies in urban and semi- urban areas (mofussil townships).

• The containment zones, based on the above should cover 100 – 500m or more of additional area based on density of population and medical advice;

• While executing the above there is a need to keep in mind the layout of the roads, railway lines, and tracks, etc to coordinate the movements to and fro from other areas. If required, some unaffected area may perforce be red or orange due to lack of exit from it without traversing a red or orange zone;

• Opening of educational institutions, should be based on keeping the physical distancing norms and other medical guidelines in mind;

• Factories, MSMEs, printing press and construction activities outside these containment zones should be permitted to resume, based on the physical distancing and medical guidelines. They may need to increase the number of shifts to cater to these norms;

• This is the opportunity for India to ensure that the ‘Make in India’ strategy can attract the MSMEs and MNCs relocating from China. This can be achieved by expeditiously reviewing the labour, land and other archaic laws that would inhibit this;

• Opening of malls, shopping complexes, restaurants, hotels, cinema halls and multiplexes also need a careful consideration, keeping physical distancing and medical guidelines in view;

• States need to expeditiously conduct a field survey to assess how many of the migrant labour can be substituted with local labour;

• Based on the above, they need to ensure that the balance migrant labourers are cared for adequately, and are available when the economic activities resume;

• Necessary fiscal and monetary intervention needs to be done by the Central and State Governments, to enable the gradual revival of Indian economy;

• The start of some passenger trains is a good signal. However, the increase in the number of trains need to be carefully calibrated;

• Similarly, the restarting of domestic flights needs a judicious approach.

Conclusion

            While the rapid rise in detected COVID cases in India is a cause for concern, but the larger picture is that this figure is skewed due to just four states that account for over 67 percent of this rise. Similarly, within these states too, the figures are skewed due to a few urban centres. Hence there is a need to have a granular statistical data to be able to formulate an effective exit strategy from this lock down 3.0 for India. Such a strategy cannot be based on a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Rather it would not only differ from state to state, but also between districts and sub-regions within the state.

The economic revival needs to be restarted in a calibrated manner, with due thought to the need for labour (especially migrant labour), resources, raw materials, and capital needed by the MSMEs, industry, et al. It will enable India to grasp this golden opportunity of actualising the ‘Make in India’ strategy by attracting the MSMEs and MNCs relocating from mainland China. For this the archaic labour, land and other laws need an urgent review. The exit strategy, therefore, needs to be well thought through and articulated in an easily understandable manner.

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan, AVSM, VSM (Retd), is the Head of Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation. His areas of interest include China, South and Central Asia, Indo-Pacific Region, Future World Order, Regional Multilateralism, and Force Structuring. He has spoken on these topics in many seminars and round table discussions both in India and abroad. He has a vast number of articles, monograph and papers published in Indian Journals and magazines (including web editions) and has curated and edited three books.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he belongs to or of the USI of India.