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North Korea’s efforts to miniaturise its warheads: Global Implications

North Korea can always use the technology as a bargaining tool to pressurise the world community into acceding to its demands such as easing the economic sanctions levied against it.

The news that North Korea is most likely to complete its mission of miniaturising its weapon to fit atop a ballistic missile is a cause of concern. There have been rumours about these developments, for example an article in the “New York Times” titled “US Commander sees Key Nuclear Step by North Korea” highlights this aspect .The overall assessment of the situation, if accurate, predicts that such a development can create problems not only for the American allies but for the overall stability within the Asian region as well, especially since North Korea has often been in the news for nuclear proliferation. One must also take into account the tense situation in West Asia, which is currently conflict ridden, and North Korea’s history of allegedly transferring technology to Iran and Syria in the past. Such an analysis reinforces the belief that the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities will intensify a situation which is already grim. North Korea has already conducted three nuclear tests and tested its medium range missile, however; some critics have been downplaying its nuclear capabilities. This is mainly on the premise that the Re-entry aspect is a technical challenge and until one live tests the missile, there is no guarantee that the warhead can accurately aim at, and hit the target. The American General Scaparrotti has stated “I believe that they have the capability to have miniaturised the device at this point, and they have the technology to potentially deliver what they say they have”, and this can be seen as an indicator that drastic changes are being made. For the past few months the United States and other agencies have been keeping an eye on the situation by keenly tracking North Korea’s nuclear developments through satellite imagery and human intelligence. Even if the technology remains untested due to technical glitches /global pressure, North Korea can always use the technology as a bargaining tool to pressurise the world community into acceding to its demands such as easing the economic sanctions levied against it. Under desperate conditions, North Korea can also use this technology as a threatening tool to strengthen its nation-state and cement its position as a global threat. Moreover, in today’s information technology era, North Korea can easily find buyers for such dangerous technology. In such a situation, one must examine what are the possible options available to the world community? One might state that instead of isolating the country, the best option would be to restart constructive dialogue. It must be noted however, that this is a difficult proposition as North Korea may not like to denuclearize its military after successfully acquiring the requisite nuclear technology to elevate itself to the level of a world threat. Nevertheless, efforts must be made to control the situation, and an attempt at finding a via – media must be made through constructive discussions. The world community still retains the upper hand, if only by a thread, and can lure North Korea into talks by raising the possibility of easing sanctions. Sanctions have never successfully managed to deal with the problem. In fact, they have always had the opposite effect and ostracized nations have inevitably redoubled their efforts, resorting to any means possible, to achieve their goals. In this conundrum, the role of China would be crucial to maintain peace and stability in the region. China is the only country which has the requisite leverage to tone down North Korean aggression, but Chinese relations with North Korea and their strategic considerations vis-à-vis the power balance in the region may lead to them choosing to stay silent over the issue. Tactful diplomacy and patient dialogue is a prerequisite if any meaningful via-media is to be achieved and the bargaining power of both the adversaries shall be put to the test in what has now become a regional stalemate.

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