The Islamic State is fast losing territory under its control in Iraq and Syria. It has lost 45 per cent of the territory Iraq and 20 per cent in Syria.[1] Its strongholds of Falluja and Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa are under attack and the ISIS all of a sudden looks weak and less threatening. However, such setbacks in Iraq and Syria have been accompanied by IS attacks on Istanbul airport, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. These attacks are part of IS strategy to resort to global terrorism since it is facing losses in its core area in Iraq and Syria. The IS attacks outside Iraq and Syria help in keeping alive their ideology and also brush aside prospects of IS weakness. The IS has urged its followers to launch attacks in areas where they live and more global attacks carried out or inspired by ISIS could be expected in coming months. The IS fighters who return from Iraq and Syria too will pose an increased risk to their home countries. This time could also be ripe for a potential merger between the ISIS and al Qaeda, both of whom are searching for renewed vigor in their movement.[2] These look horrible prospects but to stop and combat ISIS, there is need for a truly global effort that has zero tolerance for terrorism. A multi-pronged strategy that deals with military, ideological, local and developmental aspects of terrorism can be effective in tacking the ISIS. However, given the geopolitical differences among big powers over terrorism, such an effort looks distant. This leaves enough room for regional response against terrorism and efforts should be made to have regional policies that can effectively target terrorist networks and their ideologies.
For possible scenarios of ISIS in Southeast Asia, please visit the link http://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/co16169-the-day-after-islamic-state-scenarios-for-southeast-asia/#.V39LztR97Gg
Endnotes
[1] ISIS loses 45 percent of territory in Iraq, 20 percent in Syria, http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2016/05/17/isis-loses-45-percent-territory-iraq-20-percent-syria/84512408/
[2] The Coming ISIS–al Qaeda Merger, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-03-29/coming-isis-al-qaeda-merger