A framework agreement has been reached between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany) and the European Union regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. The P5+1 is often referred to as the E3/EU+3 by European countries, which is also the nomenclature used in the text of agreements with Iran. This is the framework based on which a prospective agreement would be reached by end June 2015. The Geneva agreement, officially titled the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) was an interim deal forged on 24 November 2013, under which Iran agreed to roll back parts of its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from some sanctions. The interim agreement went into effect on 20 January 2014. Later the parties agreed to extend their talks. The first extension deadline was set to 24 November 2014 on its failure a second extension deadline was set to 01 July 2015. Hence, this framework agreement reached in April 2015 comes after protracted negotiations of almost two years.
Salient Aspects of the Agreement
This agreement reached could have far-ranging implications on Middle East and South Asian geopolitics. The salient feature of the deal being:-
- Iran will give up 14,000 centrifuges from its about 19,000 to 20,000 centrifuges.
- Iran will keep most rudimentary, outdated centrifuges: its first-generation IR-1s, knockoffs of 1970s European model. It will not be allowed to build or develop newer models.
- Iran will give up 97 percent of its enriched uranium; it will hold on to only 300 kilograms of its 10,000-kilogram stockpile in its current form. Iran will destroy or export the core of its plutonium plant at Arak, and replace it with a new core that cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium. It will ship out all spent nuclear fuel.
- Limit uranium enrichment to only one facility (Natanz), while agreeing to compromises on two other facilities. In effect, it has conceded to limit enrichment to only 3.67 percent (i.e., not produce weapons-grade uranium).
- It has also agreed to convert the Fordo uranium enrichment site into a facility for advanced nuclear research and the production of medical isotopes.
- Iran has also acceded to a rigorous inspection regime under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
- It is envisaged that Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take to acquire enough fissile material to produce a weapon – will be extended from the current two to three months to at least one year.
In return, US, EU and other related UN Security Council sanctions on Iran will be lifted, (once the IAEA has verified that Iran is taking steps to fulfill its commitments under the framework).
International Reactions to the Agreement
The framework nuclear deal establishes only the very basics; negotiators will continue to meet, to try to turn them into a complete, detailed agreement by the end of June. Still, the terms in the framework, unveiled to the world after a series of late- and all-night sessions, are remarkably detailed and almost all the world powers, with the notable exception of Israel, opine that the deal is good. The agreement accepts inspections which are robust and the inspectors can now visit not only enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow, but also centrifuge factories. Inspectors will have access to all parts of Iran’s nuclear supply chain, including its uranium mines and the mills where it processes uranium ore. Inspectors will do the dual function of not only monitoring but also pre-approving all sales to Iran (of nuclear-related equipment). This provision also applies to something called “dual-use” materials, which means any equipment that could be used toward a nuclear programme.
The stringent inspections and the transparency that the Iranians have acceded to are unprecedented and have been widely hailed in the western world. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the deal “would spark an arms race among the Sunni states, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East…is a nightmare for the world.” The Saudi statement has been subtle and cautions, hoping that “reaching a final binding deal would strengthen the stability and security of the region and the world.” States which have territorial disputes with Iran, like the United Arab Emirates, have offered no comment on the agreement.[i]
Iran’s Economic Issues and Benefits of an Agreement
Iran has serious economic problems due to the Western-sponsored embargo, and also due to its financial support to the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war. This has directly affected the popular support for the regime, and threatened its stability. In order to improve its economic situation and to eliminate the domestic political threat to the regime, Iran needs to establish peace with the West.
- Iran’s energy export revenues of approximately $100 billion could not be transferred to Iran due to sanctions, because Iran’s energy exports to related countries were only paid to a local bank in that country’s currency. This amount corresponds to roughly 20 per cent of Iran’s GDP.
- Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. According to BP statistics, Iran has a total of 33.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, and about half of these reserves are located in the South Pars field. Iran shares the South Pars natural gas field with Qatar. While Qatar uses this field quite efficiently, Iran’s production rate is relatively low because the technology it uses in production is licensed by US. As Iran does not have this technology, it cannot reach the desired rate of production. Moreover, oil production in Iran has significantly declined, as it was unable to sell oil due to the embargoes, which almost terminated production in many oil wells.
- Iran has about 10 pipeline projects mainly to export its energy resources to countries such as India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait Iraq and Syria. But Iran has not managed to realize any of these projects, therefore; the country wants to increase its production by ending the embargoes and boosting energy exports.
While Iran has accepted limits on its enrichment levels and centrifuge numbers to prevent the accumulation of weapons-grade material for a decade or more, its right to enrich uranium would be enshrined as a result of the agreement. Its facilities will remain in place and the sanctions will be lifted. Legitimacy will finally be bestowed. Iran will break out of its isolation and be increasingly treated as a regional player, because discussions between the United States and Iran will have been normalised
Conclusion
A major sticking point throughout the negotiations that needs to be resolved by end June 2015 is the time frame (for sanctions to be lifted). The Iranians demand that all sanctions needs to be lifted right away; as they feel that their country needs a functioning economy and if they’re complying with all of the restrictions as of day one, then they shouldn’t have to endure crippling sanctions on day two. But the US and others negotiators appear to feel that if they lift all sanctions immediately, then Iran will have far less incentive to follow through on its commitments, as it would be very difficult to re-impose those sanctions. This aspect needs to be handled delicately and with finesse. To quote Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The metaphor I think about is a wedding engagement. The marriage is scheduled to take place in July. There is going to be vigorous debates about the size of the dowry and the prenuptial agreement. And if indeed the wedding happens on time, which is — past as precedent, it will likely be delayed — the marriage is going to have profound mistrust between the two sides and many saboteurs, but there is no great alternative.