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SALE OF SUBMARINES TO PAKISTAN: CHINA’S SHOT AT TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE

Inderjit Panjrath writes: For Indian policy makers, this should provide food for thought on what could be multiple facets and manifestations of a ‘Two Front Threat’.

Sale of eight modern submarines by China to Pakistan at a cost of $5 billion has significant strategic ramifications on many counts. At the face of it, not only is this China’s largest ever military export order but also its first sale of submarines. As far as Pakistan Navy (PN) is concerned, the quantum of the order exceeds its current holdings. A little deeper analysis reveals larger ramifications which provide onerous signs for India’s defense establishment to quickly take stock and spruce up its own preparedness and modernization plans.

For Pakistan, acquisition of these submarines enhances its maritime capability manifold. The edge currently enjoyed by the Indian Navy in the Arabian Sea, especially by virtue of its Carrier Battle Group will definitely be eroded to some extent, consequently affecting India’s overall conventional superiority over Pakistani forces. Secondly, if the attempts to fit the indigenous Babur Sea Launched Cruise Missile on the existing Augosta submarines are any indicator; we can surely expect the new submarines to be nuclear armed. While it has not officially been confirmed as to what type of submarines are to be supplied, they are likely to be export versions of Type 39 Yuan SSK fitted with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems. These being stealthy and less noisy, fit the bill to complete Pakistan’s ‘Nuclear Triad’ thereby enhancing survivability of its nuclear assets and consequently, strengthening its nuclear deterrence as well as second strike capability.

For China, the gains are much larger.  By providing these crucial seaborne assets to PN, China aims to kill two birds with one stone and at minimum cost. Firstly, by arming its trusted ally with modern submarines, it ensures a pseudo presence and toehold in the IOR, so vital for security of its SLOCs. This would be done without actually bearing the operating expenses and more significantly, without raising hackles of the international community. Secondly, an enhanced submarine fleet would force Pakistan to build strategically located berthing facilities which are open to use by Chinese submarines, whenever required.

Most notably, this deal epitomizes strong signalling by the Dragon that it means business, not only in East and South China Seas, but in the entire Indo Asia-Pacific. For Indian policy makers, this should provide food for thought on what could be multiple facets and manifestations of a ‘Two Front Threat’.

 

The link to the Hindustan Times Editorial is: http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-to-acquire-eight-attack-submarines-from-china/story-qEzvBOtrWFoqDatMcrd2J.html

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