Russia’s leading South Asia expert, Petr Topychkanov in his interview to ‘Russia Beyond the Headlines’ has said that Pakistan cannot influence Russia’s strategic partnership with India.[i] These are some comments on the relevant issue.
Russia-Pakistan relations have vastly improved compared to their Cold War years. Incidents like the U-2 spy plane in 1960 and Pakistan’s support to Afghan Mujahidin against Soviet forces ensured that Soviet-Pakistan relations never realize their potential. However, there has been an upswing in Russia-Pakistan ties ever since Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov visited Pakistan in 2007, a first by a Russian PM in almost four decades. There are regular political interactions between the two countries at President level which was not the case earlier. Former Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari became first Pakistani leader to visit Russia in 2011. These continued interactions resulted in Russian decision to sell four MI-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan to strengthen its anti-terrorism capability in 2015. The two sides will also hold their first ever military drill this year. Russia is also building the north-south gas pipeline between Lahore and Karachi. Russia’s concerns relate to Chechens and Uzbeks terrorists located in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). By reaching out to the Pakistan military, Russia is hoping that they can rein in these extremist elements. This approach is closer to that of China, which depends on Pakistan to control the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) extremists located in North Waziristan. Russia looks to be moving towards an even handed approach in South Asia akin to Soviet Union’s South Asia policy in 1960s where it mediated between India and Pakistan at Tashkent in 1966 following the 1965 Indo-Pak war. However, India’s level of strategic cooperation and market size would ensure that primacy of India in Russia’s South Asia policy is maintained. As long as Russia is able to moderate Pakistan’s behavior and approach on terrorism, it would be beneficial for India.
Endnotes
[i] Pakistan cannot influence Russia’s strategic partnership with India- expert, Russia Beyond the Headlines, May 25, 2016, http://rbth.com/international/2016/05/24/pakistan-cannot-influence-russias-strategic-partnership-with-india-exper_596865.