Dangers of Syria’s internationalised conflict have become manifest with the recent tensions between Russia and Turkey. Russia has decided to resort to economic warfare against Turkey after Ankara shot down a Russian SU-24 warplane operating in Syria over allegations of violating Turkish airspace. In the ensuing war of words, Putin accused Turkey of backstabbing while Erdogan cautioned Russia ‘not to play with fire’.
Turkey maintains that Russian jet flew over its airspace for 17 seconds and has also released an audio recording of a warning issued by Turkish Air Force to the Russian jet. However, Konstantin Murakhtin, a navigator who was rescued in a joint operation by Syrian and Russian commandos, denied any warning was issued with no contact at all.[1]
Putin was critical of Turkey, as it established contact with NATO to discuss the incident, instead of informing Moscow first about the incident. “Turkey turned to its NATO partners to discuss this incident – as if we had hit their plane and not the other way around,” Putin said.[2]
It becomes important to analyse aims and interests of both, Turkey and Russia in the ongoing Syrian civil war before reaching a conclusion.
Turkey and Russia’s Interests in Syria
Turkey has two aims in Syria – to ensure the destruction of Assad’s regime, and to prevent the creation of a new Kurdish state in Syria. However, Russian airstrikes have saved the Syrian army from defeat, at least for the moment and ensured Assad’s survival. Putin wants to help his long-time ally, Assad to stay in power and his strategy looks attractive even to the Americans despite all the ritual anti-Russian propaganda emitted by Washington. Putin wants a ceasefire in Syria that will leave everybody where they are now — except the Islamic State, which they can all then concentrate on destroying once the ceasefire is in place.[3]
That means Russia and Turkey have opposite interests in Syria. Turkey resents Russian airstrikes against opposition forces in Syria as it supports some of these groups. Of most concern to Turkey is Russia’s targeting of Syrian Turkmen who are ethnic Turks concentrated in an area north of Latakia. The Turkmen were among the first groups to take up arms against President Bashar al-Assad.[4] Some 10,000 Turkmen are serving in Syrian anti-Assad militia, almost directly funded by Turkey. Ever since 2009 rebellion broke out against Assad in Syria, neo-Ottoman impulses have taken over Turkish policymakers, where they see Turkey as the centre to reintegrate Balkans, Middle East and Caucasus.[5]
Experts feels that by shooting the Russian jet, Turkey has tried to precipitate a larger crisis between NATO (Turkey is a member of NATO) and Russia, which could save its proxies in Syria. Russian expert, Pavel Shlykov connects shooting of Russian jet to Turkish domestic politics. Erdogan’s Islamist party, AKP fell just short of winning the majority in the Turkish parliament in Nov 1 elections. It now needs to call a referendum to change the constitution and achieve Erdoğan’s dream of establishing a new presidential republic. Erdogan evidently believes that if he can project the image of a strong political leader, this will improve his rating among the masses. That is why; the government has taken up the rhetoric of saving the Turkish world not only against the Kurdish militants in Syria but also by taking on Russian operations in Syria.[6]
Russia Slaps Economic Sanctions
Russia has retaliated to the incident by slapping economic sanctions on Turkey. Turkey is Russia’s second most important trading partner after Germany and, if Russia goes ahead and cuts economic ties, both sides would feel the heat. The decree signed by Putin said charter flights from Russia to Turkey would be banned, that tour firms would be told not to sell any holidays there, and that unspecified Turkish imports would be outlawed, and Turkish firms and nationals have their economic activities halted or curbed.[7] The specific details have not been made public about the sanctions.
As one of Russia’s largest customers when it comes to energy — Turkey imports 55 per cent of its natural gas from Russia and 30 per cent of its oil and Turkey would suffer if Russia uses energy as leverage. In 2014, according to Turkish foreign trade statistics, exports to Russia were worth $5.9 billion while imports from Russia were worth $25.2 billion.[8] Tourism industry plays an important role in Turkish economy and it is expected to take a hit after Russian sanctions. Turkish beaches are a popular destination for Russian tourists, nearly 4.5 million Russians visited Turkey last year alone, adding about $4 billion to Turkey’s economy. Russians also account for about 12 per cent of all visitors to Turkey, according to Turkish government data.[9]
While these sanctions can be reversed by diplomatic channels, there is no evidence of an understanding between Russia and Turkey over Syria and their relations are likely to stay like this in near future.
Endnotes
[1] Shaun Walker and Kareem Shaheen (2015), “Turkish military releases recording of warning to Russian jet”, URL: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/25/second-russian-pilot-shot-down-turkey-alive-ambassador
[2] Turkey and Russia in war of words over downed jet, Al Jazeera, URL: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/turkey-russia-war-words-downed-jet-151124211649782.html
[3] Gwynne Dyer (2015), “Erdogan’s Gameplan Bad for the World”, Dec 1, The Pioneer, URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/erdogans-gameplan-bad-for-the-world.html
[4] Why did Turkey shoot down a Russian plane?, Al Jazeera, URL: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2015/11/turkey-russian-jet-151125134121340.html
[5]Praveen Swami (2015), “Explained: The method to Turkey’s mad shootdown of a Russian jet”, 26 Nov, Indian Express, URL: http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/the-method-to-turkeys-mad-shootdown-of-a-russian-jet/
[6]Pavel Shlykov (2015), “The End of Russian-Turkish Golden Agr”, Nov 25. Carnegie Russia, URL: http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/25/end-of-russian-turkish-golden-age/imca
[7]A Osborn and P Devitt (2015), “Putin, citing national security, signs Turkey sanctions decree”, Nov 28, URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/29/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-russia-kremlin-idUSKBN0TH0H720151129#hMLUhmcWzzT33C7V.97
[8] Holly Ellyatt (2015), “This is how Russia could hurt Turkey’s economy”, URL: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/26/this-is-how-russia-could-hurt-turkeys-economy.html
[9] Turks fear impact of Russian economic sanctions, URL: http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/11/28/turks-fear-impact-of-russian-economic-sanctions