Many issues raised by the writer merit debate. The reader can make his own assessment.
Pakistan is embroiled multiple fires of it’s own lighting. India needs to focus on dramatic consolidation in Kashmir and bridging the power asymmetry vis. a vis. China. Even a partial bridging of that asymmetry will engage Pakistan in a ruinous arms race which is a tried and tested option with potential success. The break-up of the USSR was in no small measure a result of such a race which can wreak havoc in a developing and weak economy. Obviously we need to calibrate it lest it become a double edged sword.
There are certain things mentioned in the blog which are easier said than done these are fomenting trouble of sufficient magnitude in Balochistan or building upon the unrest in Gilgit Baltistan. The discontent in Gilgit Baltistan is lower than what is believed in some quarters. In any case it is lower that what afflicts us in our heartland in the LWE areas. We should not over estimate situations to our advantage.
A full-fledged hybrid war against Pakistan will badly distract us from our larger goals. India’s on-going strategy of incident based punitive response has posed serious caution on them. We need a calibrated and covert response than professing an outright hostility.
Many of the suggestions about putting pressure on Pakistan appear simplistic But are actually complex. Unless India is prepared to greatly reduce investment in or attention to, other sectors, no amount of ramping up proposed by the writer is likely to manifest. Measures like releasing effluents into water channels leading to Pakistan appears a good idea to vent our ire but is not as practical keeping in view that said effluents have to be through our own upstream rivers. A study of the problems in disposal of saline water in Haryana will provide sufficient evidence in this regard. From where and in what manner can be done can only be studied by hydro geologists.
Measures like an ambiguous “”no first use” have already been introduced by the Defence Minister in his speech recently. One measure which is not contemplated in this blog but which can be considered at the strategic level are greater efforts to improve a trade linkages with China in a manner that our economies are mutually beneficial which develops a Chinese strategic interest to be balanced in dealing with India versus Pakistan. Conversely, we make greater efforts to align with the United States of America. Time does not stand still and is only a matter of time before the importance of Pakistan in the US calculus reduces. Already there are portents of US security attention shifting back to Europe and the Middle East as Russia becomes assertive.
Lastly, a full-fledged hybrid war against Pakistan will badly distract us from our larger goals. India’s on-going strategy of incident based punitive response has posed serious caution on them. It is a good strategy and we need to refine it and keep it updated. We need a calibrated and covert response than professing outright hostility. This will bring as greater dividends.
The original article was written by Lt Gen PR Shankar (R) published on 18, August 2019 on https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/08/indian-options-to-thwart-pakistan-post.html