Citing a combination of factors including a lack of cooperation from India and insufficient resources, the Afghan embassy had called upon the Indian government to fly the Afghan flag over its premises and ensure that the mission is eventually transferred to a “legitimate government” of Afghanistan in the future.
This development begs the question: how will it impact the intricate web of relations between India and Afghanistan? The closure of the embassy marks a significant turning point. The mission ceased to represent an active state back in August 2021. With the departure of Ambassador Farid Mamundzay, who served under the previous regime of President Ashraf Ghani, the embassy was permanently shuttered on September 30th, 2023. Since then, the Embassy of Afghanistan in New Delhi has functioned as a “stateless mission,” unable to fully represent the current rulers of Kabul, namely the Taliban, with whom India lacks diplomatic relations. Nevertheless, the Afghan embassy played a vital symbolic role in assisting Afghan citizens and Indian travellers, bridging the gap caused by the absence of formal diplomatic ties.[i]
The ramifications of this closure reverberate across multiple domains. Firstly, it casts a shadow over humanitarian efforts, potentially hindering India’s assistance to Afghan citizens. Moreover, India’s extensive involvement in development projects and aid initiatives in Afghanistan faces disruption due to the shutdown of diplomatic channels. As a consequence, India may need to explore alternative avenues for engaging with Afghan authorities and stakeholders to maintain some semblance of diplomatic influence.[ii]
Economically, the fallout is palpable. In 2023 alone, India exported nearly $600 million worth of commodities to Afghanistan and imported goods valued at almost $200 million. With diplomatic channels severed, India must now explore alternate markets and trading avenues to mitigate potential economic repercussions. Additionally, there’s a pressing need to reassess investment plans in Afghanistan amidst escalating political and security concerns.[iii]
Security is another critical facet. The closure of the Afghan embassy raises apprehensions about heightened security risks emanating from Afghanistan, particularly if it signifies a deteriorating security environment or increased Taliban authority. To navigate these uncertainties, India must bolster its intelligence-gathering capabilities and ensure the safety of its citizens and aid workers stationed in Afghanistan through coordinated efforts with international partners and humanitarian organizations.[iv]
China’s recent recognition of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan adds another layer of complexity. While it may not directly precipitate the closure of Afghanistan’s embassy in India, it certainly contributes to shifting diplomatic dynamics in the region. In response, India may need to recalibrate its regional policy, forging closer ties with other stakeholders to address shared concerns regarding Afghanistan, including instability and terrorism.[v]
The closure of the Afghan embassy also leaves a significant void in terms of institutional support for Afghan nationals residing in India. Approximately one-third of the nearly 40,000 Afghan refugees registered with the UNHCR call India home. Questions loom large over the fate of the Afghan diplomatic mission’s property, bank accounts, and vehicles, underscoring the need for clarity and swift action.[vi]
Looking ahead, restoring India-Afghanistan relations demands a multifaceted approach. At the bilateral level, there’s a critical need to chart a future-oriented path, considering that many of India’s major projects in Afghanistan have concluded. Simultaneously, a multilateral strategy is imperative to guide Afghanistan’s transformative decade, necessitating the formulation of a backup plan (“Plan B”) given the precarious state of the current peace process.[vii]
In conclusion, the closure of Afghanistan’s embassy in India marks a significant inflection point with far-reaching implications. As both nations navigate this tumultuous terrain, strategic recalibration and concerted efforts are imperative to steer relations toward a more stable and mutually beneficial trajectory.
Endotes
[i] Kallol Bhattacherjee, “Shutdown of the Afghan embassy in Delhi | Explained”, The Hindu, October 03, 2013, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/the-shutdown-of-the-afghan-embassy/article67377405.ece
[ii] Shivam Patel, “Afghan embassy in India shuts down citing lack of support, Taliban pressure”, Reuters, November 24, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-embassy-india-shuts-down-citing-lack-support-taliban-pressure-2023-11-24/
[iii] Aishwarya Paliwal, “Afghanistan crisis: Indian trade worth $1.5 billion stops abruptly as Afghans stare at bleak future”, India Today, August 24, 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/afghanistan-crisis-indian-bilateral-trade-stops-abruptly-afghans-bleak-future-1844493-2021-08-24
[iv] Rakesh Sood, “Redefining India’s role in Afghanistan,” Observer Research Foundation, November 27, 2021, https://www.orfonline.org/research/redefining-indias-role-in-afghanistan
[v] Muneeb Yousuf, “India-Afghanistan Relations in Changing Regional Geopolitics,” Sage Journal, September 23, 2023, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/02627280231190790
[vi] Shubhajit Roy, “Citing pressure, Afghan embassy in India closes permanently,” The Indian Express, November 25, 2023, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/citing-pressure-afghan-embassy-in-india-closes-permanently-9041399/#:~:text=Citing%20%E2%80%9Cconstant%20pressure%20from%20both,the%20embassy%20in%20New%20Delhi.
[vii] orfonline.org. “The Way Ahead for India-Afghanistan Relations,” n.d. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-way-ahead-for-india-afghanistan-relations.
Author: Sidharth Bhardwaj, Research Intern, CS3, USI.