Undeniably, China with its hard dealings and stringent actions has come out as a winner and role model. What has significantly changed is how we redefine the behaviors of states, the norms of dealing among states, and the rules of governance. Does this mean that a new world order is shaping much faster than we imagined? Does this point towards new kinds of security paradigm being shaped by Asian leaders? Will this eventually create new alliances among asymmetrical powers? Will a new form of engagement to fight common enemies emerge in the regional as well as global architecture of State alliances? It seems imperative that the world that was shifting gradually has been pushed towards much faster transformation. Asian actors are leading to make their own space, with China rising as a supporter and provider of public goods.

China-US War of Blames

As China grappled with the epidemic early this year and the virus spread from Wuhan to other provinces, western media and scholars began on vociferous war of words with innumerable articles flooding the social media on the emergence of the disease, its consequences, and the actions of the Chinese state. Many narratives made derivative conclusions on the emergence of coronavirus, which also became a subject of heated debate among Chinese scholars. The countdown of deaths spread panic and fear across globe, especially with the horror stories of inhuman actions of the Chinese state.

As Qiushi, a Chinese periodical of the Central Party School and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, published an article titled “A Great Power Leader Assumes Responsibility – The Party Secretary’s War on the Epidemic Journal”, calling Xi Jinping as the “Great Power leader” (大国领袖) and providing the timeline of events,^[i] the western narrative lambasted with derivation that Chinese President Xi Jinping and his team knew everything before January 7, 2020. The article accepted that during the Standing Committee meeting of the Politburo, Xi called for prevention work for the new Coronavirus-pneumonia epidemic. Yet, Dr. Li Wenliang was silenced while President Xi authorized specific anti-epidemic measures only on January 20th, and on 22nd of January Hubei was quarantined.

Chinese Foreign Ministry later revealed that it notified the United States of the Coronavirus information 30 times since January 3, which is 17 days before the emergency meeting of the State Council.^[ii] There is also The Lancet report highlighting the first person to become ill was on December 1st with no exposure to Wuhan fish market, though the first casualty was on January 9 of a person with exposure to the market.^[iii] Hence, many versions of the emergence and possible spread floats around.

As the epicenter of the virus moves from China to other countries like Italy, Spain or Iran, China has launched a strong counter propaganda to falsify the claims that it emerged in China or has any links to Wuhan Institute of Virology. China questions the lack of evidence to claim the virus leaked from Wuhan lab or that China was preparing for biological warfare. The war of words led to a situation whereby David Stilwell, the US diplomat for Asia, issued a “stern representation” to Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai on March 13, a day after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian tweeted ‘conspiracy theory’. Zhao had stated in his tweet that ‘patient zero’ may have come from the US and not from Wuhan where cases were first reported in late 2019. Further highlighting that it might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Thereby, spinning a new narrative targeting the US.

Interestingly, there are many open reports of 300 US army personnel present in Wuhan for sports being blamed for the virus, along with records of many deaths in US being brushed as influenza. In this blame game, China has got the support of Russia and Iran criticizing the USA and blaming it for waging a ‘biological war against humanity’ and demanding transparency and investigation; while the US is denying all accusations.

New Geo-Strategic Shifts: Undercurrents and Issues

The initial reaction of many western powers was of anger and criticism of China, however, many are learning and adopting the China model by closing the borders and shutting down entire cities. As the virus is of trans-local and trans-regional nature, there is shift in approaches of human rights issues that many states earlier felt were unnecessary, but are now supportive of Asian states. Before 1960, the West used similar methods of segregating individuals with infectious diseases until the norms of human rights became an issue of global concern.

One would have expected joint support and unified approach to tackling the crisis, but there are deeper frictions accentuated with US and China at opposite poles. New approaches and state behaviors are visible with China being supported by Russia and Iran; India revitalizing the SAARC unanimity; French President infusing vitality of G7 states with main western economies and Japan; and South Korea calling G20 states for a global community action.

The spread of the virus shows flaws in US led security architecture and its governance system. In specific, when Italy is unable to deal, China has come out, instead of EU partners or US, as a great game changer. China committed to provide 100,000 respirators, 1000 ventilators, two million masks, 20,000 protective suits, and 50,000 test kits.^[iv] Therefore, it seems China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that made inroads into many states is now being consolidated with humanitarian material support.

Apart from the traditional security challenges, non-traditional security threats require a need to redefine threats to human security from the perspective of human caused destructions, i.e. threat of biowarfare. A holistic perspective of the environment in an interconnected world along with pandemic will need to be addressed in the new security architecture. Security of individuals beyond territories and affected due to the linkages are another set of issues, as the states move towards bridging the gap through mega connectivity projects like the BRI.

In this new matrix, another significant shift is of the financial arrangements, defying US Dollar. In 2019, China and Russia signed an agreement to shift mechanics of payment in national currencies by 2020; while their bilateral trade reached USD 25 billion a quarter.^[v] Reports state that this arrangement is to be extended to all SCO member states and Pakistan is all prepared. Way back in 2018, Turkish and Iranian Central Banks already started trading in local currencies and launched yuan-denominated oil futures instead of petro- dollar.^[vi] Therefore, a new global shift, though inevitable, will be rolling at much faster speed than speculated.

Implications for India

As the pandemics hit Indian territory, there is panic and fear not just among its own citizens, but also among many neighboring citizens earning their bread and bread from the land. As a matured and responsible power, Ministry of External Affairs has shouldered the burden of bringing its citizens back from the Covid-19 critical countries, along with bringing some citizens of Nepal and Maldives. However, now the burden of supporting and protecting the neighboring states become crucial. With Indian PM Modi pledging USD 10 million emergency fund for SAARC countries,^[vii] what will be essential is to revitalize the spirit of SAARC with each actor made responsible for maintaining peace and tranquility in the region. More important will be to design a framework of indigenous security threats in South Asia while building on trans-border connectivity projects, where India will need to lead to mitigate with non-cooperative actors. The task ahead is huge, but coordination is the only way forward for redesigning a New South Asia with human security as the core guiding principle.

End Notes:-

^[i] Qiushi Network (2020). “A Great Power Leader Assumes Responsibility – The Party Secretary’s War on the Epidemic Journal” (大国领袖的责任担当 — 总书记的战“疫”日志), February 15, 2020, https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-YRA4TgcbxwyXpEL3cJeCw (accessed February 16, 2020)

^[ii] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Daily Briefing Online on February 3, 2020, at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1739548.shtml (accessed March 2, 2020)

^[iii] Huang Chaolin et.al. (2020) “Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China”, The Lancet, January 24, Vol. 395, pp. 497-506, at https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5.pdf (accessed March 10, 2020)

^[iv] Campbell Kurt M. and Rush Doshi (2020). “The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order”, Foreign Affairs, March 18, at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-18/coronavirus-could-reshape-global-order (accessed on March 17, 2020)

^[v] Russia Briefing (2019). “Russia, China Sign Deal To Settle All Trade In Respective Currencies And Drop Bilateral Use Of US Dollars”, July 1, at https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-china-sign-deal-settle-trade-respective-currencies-drop-bilateral-use-us-dollars.html/ (accessed February 10, 2020)

^[vi] Mehta, Chirag (2020). “As world adjusts to changing monetary regime, gold can serve as a hedge”, Live Mint, February 24, at https://www.livemint.com/money/personal-finance/as-world-adjusts-to-changing-monetary-regime-gold-can-serve-as-a-hedge-11582559386670.html  (accessed March 19, 2020)

^[vii] Narendra Modi, (2020). PM Interacts With SAARC Leaders to Combat Covid-19 in the Region, March 15, at https://www.narendramodi.in/prime-minister-narendra-modi-s-interaction-with-saarc-leaders-on-fighting-coronavirus-548793 (accessed on March 20, 2020)

Dr Geeta Kochhar is Assistant  Professor ( China ) at JNU , New Delhi .
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisation that he/she belongs to or of the USI of India.