On September 20, 2024, Sri Lanka witnessed a significant political shift with the election of Anura Dissanayake as the new President. Representing the left-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Dissanayake won a competitive election marked by the necessity to count preferential votes. In the initial tally, Dissanayake secured approximately 42.31% of the votes[i], necessitating a second round to finalize the results. He will be leading the National Peoples Power (NPP) alliance, a coalition that includes the JVP and other left-leaning factions, presenting a united front against the incumbent political establishment.

Who is Aruna Dissanayake?

Aruna Dissanayake is a prominent figure within Sri Lanka’s leftist movement, firmly rooted in Marxist ideology. As a leading member of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), he has been a vocal advocate for social justice and economic reform, positioning himself as a representative of the working class. From scoring 31.6% in the 2019 presidential elections to winning them this year, Dissanayake’s victory is representative of his growing influence and the public’s desire for transformative change.[ii] His grassroots campaign started after his loss in the 2019 and 2020 elections.[iii]  The campaign focused on issues such as income inequality, labour rights, and access to essential services, resonating with many Sri Lankans grappling with the ongoing economic crisis. His win is also attributed to his campaign’s intersection with the People’s Struggle movement of 2020, also known as the ‘Aragayala’.  Through community engagement and rallies, Dissanayake emphasized the importance of collective action in addressing the challenges faced by ordinary citizens.[iv]

Challenges Ahead for Dissanayake’s Government

Despite his electoral success, Dissanayake faces substantial challenges as he steps into the presidency. The JVP currently holds only three seats in Parliament, highlighting the uphill battle he will face in gaining a majority in the next general elections.[v] This limited representation poses a significant barrier to implementing his proposed reforms and policies.

Moreover, Sri Lanka’s dire economic situation complicates Dissanayake’s plans. The country is grappling with an enormous debt burden, requiring careful navigation between fulfilling electoral promises and adhering to the strict austerity measures mandated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).[vi] His administration will need to prioritize debt restructuring while simultaneously addressing the economic aspirations of the electorate. As noted by various analysts, Dissanayake’s commitment to social programs may clash with the stringent financial constraints imposed by international lenders.[vii]

Implications for India

Dissanayake’s election carries significant implications for India, particularly in the context of geopolitical dynamics in the region. His Marxist leanings may raise concerns about a potential pivot towards China, especially given the historical backdrop of Sri Lanka’s relations with both India and China. However, Dissanayake has publicly stated that Sri Lanka will not be used as a pawn in the rivalry between these two nations.[viii]

India’s apprehensions are compounded by past events, including Dissanayake’s critical stance on issues affecting Tamil origin estate workers and his views on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).[ix] Additionally, his administration’s position on Tamil ethnic minorities has been closely scrutinized, particularly in light of the historical tensions in the region. The ongoing Adani wind power project in Sri Lanka has also been a contentious issue, with Dissanayake’s government expected to reassess its implications.[x]

In preparation for the potential rise of a left-leaning administration, India had already laid the groundwork for engagement by inviting Dissanayake for discussions and extending a $4 billion bailout during Sri Lanka’s financial crisis in 2022.[xi] This proactive approach illustrates India’s strategic interest in maintaining stability in Sri Lanka while fostering cooperative relations.

Conclusion

As Sri Lanka embarks on this new political chapter under President Anura Dissanayake, the region and, notably, India must remain vigilant. The upcoming general elections that Dissanayake announced a day after taking charge[xii] will be a crucial test of Dissanayake’s ability to consolidate power and implement his vision amid considerable economic challenges. Furthermore, the dynamics between Sri Lanka and China will likely evolve, necessitating a careful diplomatic balance by India. The future of Sri Lanka’s political landscape will undoubtedly impact broader regional stability, and stakeholders should closely monitor these developments.

 

By: Manah Popli, Research Assistant, CS3, USI

 

 

Endnotes

[i] Srinivasan, Meera. “Anura Kumara Dissanayake Wins Sri Lanka Presidential Elections 2024.” The Hindu, September 23, 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/anura-kumara-dissanayake-elected-sri-lanka-president/article68671042.ece.

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Butler, Gavin. “Anura Kumara Dissanayake: Who Is Sri Lanka’s New President?” BBC, September 22, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l7pz5v1o.

[v] Srinivasan, Meera. “Anura Kumara Dissanayake Wins Sri Lanka Presidential Elections 2024.” The Hindu, September 23, 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/anura-kumara-dissanayake-elected-sri-lanka-president/article68671042.ece.

[vi] Dowerah, Simantik. “IMF Factor: Will Dissanayake’s Promises of Change Collide with Sri Lanka’s Debt Obligations?” Firstpost, September 23, 2024. https://www.firstpost.com/world/imf-factor-will-dissanayakes-promises-of-change-collide-with-sri-lankas-debt-obligations-13818097.html.

[vii] Butler, Gavin. “Anura Kumara Dissanayake: Who Is Sri Lanka’s New President?” BBC, September 22, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l7pz5v1o.

[viii] Sayantani. “‘Sri Lanka Will Not Be Used…’: What Is Newly-elected President Dissanayake’s Stance on India?” Mint, September 23, 2024. https://www.livemint.com/news/world/sri-lanka-will-not-be-used-what-is-newly-elected-president-anura-kumara-dissanayakes-stance-on-india-china-11727018915270.html.

[ix] Basak, Debasis. “Sri Lanka Gets a New President in Anura Dissanayake: What Does It Mean for India?” Moneycontrol, September 22, 2024. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/sri-lanka-gets-a-new-president-in-anura-dissanayake-what-does-it-mean-for-india-12827346.html.

[x] Parashar, Sachin. “New Lankan President: A Curveball India Prepared for; Anura Kumara Dissanayake Against Adani Project but Backs Indian Security.” The Times of India, September 23, 2024. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/new-lankan-president-a-curveball-india-prepared-for-akd-against-adani-project-but-backs-indian security/articleshow/113576472.cms.

[xi] Ibid.

[xii] Sengupta, Arjun. “Why Sri Lanka’s Newly Elected President Dissolved Parliament.” Indian Express. September 26, 2024. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/why-sri-lankas-newly-elected-president-dissolved-parliament-9588392/.